Lazio

Lazio CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-20
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Lazio can't catch a break. 51 points when the data says they deserve closer to 45.6? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-22.6 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

51
Points
Expected: 45.6
39
Goals Scored
xG: 41.49
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.12
5.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Fiorentina · away
0-1
Lost away against Fiorentina

One of those games where nothing went right. Lazio generated 1.33 xG, comfortably more than the 0.61 their opponent managed. Fiorentina generated just 0.61 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Lazio. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'R. Gosens scores for Fiorentina (assist: J. Harrison)
1.33
xG Created
0.61
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Fiorentina · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.61
MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Torino · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.05-0.71
MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs AS Roma · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.04-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs AC Milan · Home+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.41-1.4
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.69-1.51
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Juventus · Home+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.49

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-22.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (202 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-13.7
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 46.1 xGA opponents generated
+6.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 41.5 xG - wasting chances
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS-20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Lazio are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-23
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