Lazio

Lazio CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+14
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Lazio are getting roughly what they deserve. 13 points vs 7.97 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 7.97
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.69
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.19
5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-12 · vs AC Milan · at home
2-2
Drew at home against AC Milan

One of those games where nothing went right. Lazio created 2.01 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Lazio. They got 1. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'M. Cancellieri scores for Lazio (assist: M. Zaccagni)
39'T. Noslin scores for Lazio
65'D. Moreira scores for AC Milan (assist: C. Pulisic)
67'D. Moreira scores for AC Milan (assist: A. Rabiot)
2.01
xG Created
1.25
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs AC Milan · Home-0.9 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.0-1.3.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.01-1.25
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Genoa · Home+0.8 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.4.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.62-0.42
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Udinese · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 1.8-0.8.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.83-0.85

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Bologna · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.78
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Venezia · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.6-1.89
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Udinese · Away+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 away. xG: 1.8-0.8.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.83-0.85

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (37 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 6.2 xGA opponents generated
+2.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.5
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 7.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.3
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lazio are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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