Lazio Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

Luck Index Score

Lazio are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 36.17 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 36.17

Goals Scored

xG: 33.31

Goals Conceded

xGA: 40.1

7.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 19 · 2026-01-07 · vs Fiorentina · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Fiorentina

A draw that felt like a loss. Lazio created 2.74 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Lazio. They got 1. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

21'G. Simeone scores for Torino

53'D. Zapata scores for Torino (assist: R. Obrador)

2.74

xG Created

1.64

Opp. xG

-1.0

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Torino · Away-1.6 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.05-0.71

MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs AS Roma · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.04-1.16

MW3 · 2025-09-14 · vs Sassuolo · Away-1.0 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.76-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs AC Milan · Home+2.4 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.41-1.4

MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.2 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.69-1.51

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Juventus · Home+2.1 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.49

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-17.4

Injury Burden

High injury burden (166 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-16

xPTS Gap

8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+15.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 11 fewer goals than the 40.1 xGA opponents generated

+13.3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+4.7

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Finishing Luck

Scored 1 fewer goals than their 33.3 xG - wasting chances

-0.5

Total Luck Index+2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Lazio are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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