Lazio

Lazio CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-8
CLS Score

Lazio are getting roughly what they deserve. 47 points vs 40.56 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 40.56
34
Goals Scored
xG: 36.91
30
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.22
6.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Fiorentina · away
0-1
Lost away against Fiorentina

One of those games where nothing went right. Lazio generated 1.33 xG, comfortably more than the 0.61 their opponent managed. Fiorentina generated just 0.61 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Lazio. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'R. Gosens scores for Fiorentina (assist: J. Harrison)
1.33
xG Created
0.61
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Fiorentina · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.61
MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Torino · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.05-0.71
MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs AS Roma · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.04-1.16

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs AC Milan · Home+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.41-1.4
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Cagliari · Home+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.69-1.51
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Juventus · Home+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.78-1.49

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-17.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (176 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-13.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 fewer goals than the 41.2 xGA opponents generated
+11.1
xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+10.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 36.9 xG - wasting chances
-3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.4
Total CLS-8

Rank Per Signal

Where Lazio ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Injury Burden
1
20
-13.5
1
Schedule Strength
1
20
-17.9
9
Finishing Luck
1
20
-3
15
xPTS Gap
1
20
+10.4
15
Discipline
1
20
+1.4
16
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+3.5
20
Defensive Luck
1
20
+11.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lazio are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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