Villa Park, Saturday afternoon. Aston Villa generate 2.4 expected goals from 27 shots with 72% possession against ten men. They lose 0-1. The Luck Index does not lie.
How Do You Lose This Match?
The sequence of events at Villa Park reads like a stress test for the xG model. Kevin Schade picks up a red card on 42 minutes, leaving Brentford a man down with the entire second half to survive. Three minutes later, Dango Ouattara scores against the run of play. Brentford's only real chance of the half, converted from a combined xG of 0.4.
Villa respond as you'd expect. They throw bodies forward. They fire 27 shots. Emery's 4-2-3-1 pins Brentford in their own box for long stretches of the second half.
Tammy Abraham even puts the ball in the net on 52 minutes.
VAR takes it away. Goal cancelled.
That is 2.4 xG worth of opportunities, created against a side playing with ten men for 48 minutes, producing exactly zero goals. Brentford's Carabao Kelleher and a packed defence held firm with the statistical equivalent of a paper shield.
The Numbers Don't Add Up
Villa's 72% possession tells only part of the story. They dominated territory, won corners, created overloads. On any other afternoon, this performance produces two or three goals comfortably.
Brentford's 0.4 xG from 6 shots is the kind of output you'd expect from a side content to take a point. Instead, it was enough for all three. Keith Andrews' side retreated into a compact low block after the red card, time-wasted expertly, and picked up three yellow cards in the process. Vitaly Janelt's booking in the 91st minute was the cherry on top.
Villa's Luck Index took a predictable hit. When you outshoot your opponent 27-6, hold 72% of the ball, and still walk away with nothing, the data has already written the verdict for you.