Astros CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 104 games played · View MLB standings →
+14
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Astros are getting what their run differential deserves. 49 wins vs 46.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
49
Wins
Expected: 46.9
468
Runs Scored
516
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm94 · 2026-07-06 · vs Nationals · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 11-12 to Nationals. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 11-12
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 10-12 to Athletics. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 10-12
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm92 · 2026-07-04 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rays 10-8 (11-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 10-8
Gm87 · 2026-06-28 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 7-5 (7-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm86 · 2026-06-27 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 8-6 (16-11 H). Dominated with the bat (16 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 8-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+10.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.68 vs xERA 4.48 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-8.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.6
One-Run Game Record
9-8 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.319 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.3
Total CLS+14
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|58 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Astros are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 13th).