Astros

Astros CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →

-19
CLS Score

Astros deserve more. 9 wins vs 11 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

9
Wins
Expected: 11
130
Runs Scored
142
Runs Allowed
2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · away
10-12
Lost away against Athletics

Fell to Athletics 10-12 in 10 innings. Couldn't close it out in extras.

10
Runs
12
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Fell to Athletics 10-12 in 10 innings. Couldn't close it out in extras.
Score: 10-12
MW11 · 2026-04-06 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Rockies 7-9.
Score: 7-9
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Mariners · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 to Mariners. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 7-8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Rockies 7-6. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 7-6
MW4 · 2026-03-29 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 9-7.
Score: 9-7
MW3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 11-9.
Score: 11-9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-9.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.98 vs xERA 4.63 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (18 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.4
One-Run Game Record
Not enough one-run games yet (1-2)
-2.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.356 vs xwOBA 0.351 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.7
Total CLS-19

Rank Per Signal

Where Astros ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-9.6
2
Pitching Luck
1
30
-6.5
4
Injury Burden
1
30
-2.4
10
One-Run Game Record
1
30
-2.2
24
Batting Luck
1
30
+1.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|138 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -19, Astros are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 7th in the league - a tough run. A difficult run could slow the bounce-back.

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