Astros CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 52 games played · View MLB standings →
-8
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Astros are getting what their run differential deserves. 20 wins vs 20.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
20
Wins
Expected: 20.2
218
Runs Scored
274
Runs Allowed
0.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 10-12 to Athletics. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 10-12
Gm11 · 2026-04-06 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Rockies. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 7-9
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm45 · 2026-05-13 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Mariners. Mariners left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rockies. Rockies left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm4 · 2026-03-29 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Angels 9-7 (7-7 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.37 vs xERA 4.71 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-12.5
One-Run Game Record
4-2 in one-run games (67% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+4.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.327 - hard contact not converting into hits
+2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-0.5
Total CLS-8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|110 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Astros are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).