Astros CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 163 games played · View MLB standings →
+3
CLS Score
16th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Astros are getting what their run differential deserves. 81 wins vs 77.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
81
Wins
Expected: 77.8
734
Runs Scored
766
Runs Allowed
3.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm94 · 2026-07-06 · vs Nationals · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 11-12 to Nationals. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 11-12
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 10-12 to Athletics. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 10-12
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm160 · 2026-09-24 · vs Athletics · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Athletics 7-5 (10-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm146 · 2026-09-08 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Phillies (11-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm133 · 2026-08-25 · vs Yankees · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Yankees 9-7 (14-10 H). Dominated with the bat (14 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 9-7
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.309 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14.1
Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+11.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.33 vs xERA 4.13 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-10.2
One-Run Game Record
15-18 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.2
Total CLS+3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Astros are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available