Astros Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
+23
Luck Index Score
Astros are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 2.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 2.8
30
Runs Scored
Expected: 2.8
26
Runs Allowed
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.392 vs xwOBA 0.371 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+23
Pitching Luck
ERA 6.09 vs xERA 4.47 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-20
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+13
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+6
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+22
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Astros are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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