Astros

Astros CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →

+21
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Astros have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+16.6 CLS impact). 4 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

65
Wins
Expected: 60.8
590
Runs Scored
633
Runs Allowed
4.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles

Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm94 · 2026-07-06 · vs Nationals · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 11-12 to Nationals. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 11-12
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 10-12 to Athletics. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 10-12

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm113 · 2026-08-01 · vs Rangers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Rangers (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm92 · 2026-07-04 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rays 10-8 (11-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 10-8
Gm87 · 2026-06-28 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 7-5 (7-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+16.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.57 vs xERA 4.24 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-13.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+11.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.319 vs xwOBA 0.315 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+4.3
One-Run Game Record
13-12 in one-run games (52% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.7
Total CLS+21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Astros are riding their luck at +21. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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