Astros

Astros CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 93 games played · View MLB standings →

+17
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Astros have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+15.1 CLS impact). 3 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Wins
Expected: 41.8
413
Runs Scored
457
Runs Allowed
3.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · away
0-0
Lost away against Orioles

Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Orioles 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 10-12 to Athletics. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 10-12
Gm11 · 2026-04-06 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Rockies. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 7-9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm92 · 2026-07-04 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rays 10-8 (11-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 10-8
Gm87 · 2026-06-28 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 7-5 (7-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm86 · 2026-06-27 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 8-6 (16-11 H). Dominated with the bat (16 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 8-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+15.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.75 vs xERA 4.43 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-10.7
One-Run Game Record
9-5 in one-run games (64% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+10.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.319 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|69 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Astros are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
07-06
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07-07
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07-08
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07-11
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