Rangers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 89 games played · View MLB standings →
+6
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Rangers are getting what their run differential deserves. 45 wins vs 43.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
45
Wins
Expected: 43.9
364
Runs Scored
369
Runs Allowed
1.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · away
8-7
Lost away against Dodgers
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
7
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 7-8
Gm18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Athletics (5-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm47 · 2026-05-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Rockies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm82 · 2026-06-26 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Blue Jays (9-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm81 · 2026-06-25 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Blue Jays (10-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm78 · 2026-06-22 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Marlins (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
15-10 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+7.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.31 vs xERA 4.22 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.317 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.7
Total CLS+6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|73 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rangers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.