Rangers

Rangers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

+20
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rangers have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+14.0 CLS impact). 4 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

80
Wins
Expected: 76.1
673
Runs Scored
719
Runs Allowed
3.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · away
8-7
Lost away against Dodgers

Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

7
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 7-8
Gm18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Athletics (5-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm47 · 2026-05-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Rockies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm150 · 2026-09-13 · vs D-backs · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against D-backs. 2 D-backs errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6
Gm144 · 2026-09-06 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Rays 8-6. 2 Rays errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 8-6
Gm114 · 2026-08-04 · vs Giants · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Giants (11-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14
One-Run Game Record
23-17 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+11.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.38 vs xERA 4.25 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-7.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.311 vs xwOBA 0.306 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Total CLS+20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rangers are riding their luck at +20. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available