Rangers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →
-10
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Rangers are getting what their run differential deserves. 24 wins vs 26.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
24
Wins
Expected: 26.1
192
Runs Scored
179
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · away
8-7
Lost away against Dodgers
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
7
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 7-8
Gm18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Athletics (5-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm47 · 2026-05-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Rockies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm49 · 2026-05-20 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Rockies (13-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm43 · 2026-05-13 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against D-backs. D-backs left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm32 · 2026-05-01 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Tigers (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.46 vs xERA 3.96 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (17 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.4
One-Run Game Record
7-8 in one-run games (47% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.5
Total CLS-10
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|113 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rangers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 29th in the league - a favorable stretch.