Rangers

Rangers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 130 games played · View MLB standings →

+35
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rangers have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+16.9 CLS impact). 22-13 in one-run games (63% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

64
Wins
Expected: 59.7
516
Runs Scored
564
Runs Allowed
4.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · away
8-7
Lost away against Dodgers

Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

7
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 to Dodgers (9-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 7-8
Gm18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Athletics (5-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm47 · 2026-05-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Rockies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm114 · 2026-08-04 · vs Giants · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Giants (11-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm103 · 2026-07-24 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Mariners (10-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm98 · 2026-07-18 · vs Braves · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Braves. 2 Braves errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
22-13 in one-run games (63% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+16.9
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+16.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.311 vs xwOBA 0.306 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.29 vs xERA 4.22 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS+35

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rangers are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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