Atalanta

Atalanta CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+5
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Atalanta are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 3.69 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 3.69
5
Goals Scored
xG: 4.07
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.35
2.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Cagliari · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Cagliari

One of those games where nothing went right. Atalanta generated 1.74 xG, comfortably more than the 1.32 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Atalanta. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
19'P. Mendy scores for Cagliari (assist: M. Adopo)
41'G. Scamacca scores for Atalanta (assist: C. De Ketelaere)
61'D. Maldini scores for Cagliari
1.74
xG Created
1.32
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.74-1.32
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Juventus · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 0-2 away. xG: 0.6-1.3.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.6-1.31
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs AS Roma · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.7-3.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.7-2.97

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Sassuolo · Home+2.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-2.7
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs Bologna · Home+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.15-1.05
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs AS Roma · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 0.7-3.0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.7-2.97

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 more goals than their 4.1 xG - clinical finishing
+2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 9.3 xGA opponents generated
+1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (19 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.4
Total CLS+5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atalanta are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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