Atalanta Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+14

Luck Index Score

Atalanta are getting roughly what they deserve. 53 points vs 51.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 51.5

Goals Scored

xG: 48.26

Goals Conceded

xGA: 34.98

1.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sassuolo · away

1-2

Lost away against Sassuolo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Atalanta created 3.18 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sassuolo generated just 1.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Atalanta. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

16'Andrea Pinamonti (Sassuolo) - Red Card

23'I. Kone scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)

69'K. Thorstvedt scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)

88'Y. Musah scores for Atalanta (assist: D. Zappacosta)

3.18

xG Created

1.52

Opp. xG

-2.2

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sassuolo · Away-2.2 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.18-1.52

MW14 · 2025-12-06 · vs Hellas Verona · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.47-0.99

MW7 · 2025-10-19 · vs Lazio · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.18-0.25

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Napoli · Home+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.08

MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.7 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.96-0.97

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Fiorentina · Home+1.6 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.6-1.58

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck

Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 35.0 xGA opponents generated

+8.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 48.3 xG - wasting chances

-6.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (94 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+6.1

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+3.3

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+2.7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Total Luck Index+14

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Atalanta are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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