Atalanta

Atalanta CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+4
CLS Score

Atalanta are getting roughly what they deserve. 54 points vs 54.74 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

54
Points
Expected: 54.74
45
Goals Scored
xG: 51.2
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 36.77
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sassuolo · away
1-2
Lost away against Sassuolo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Atalanta created 3.18 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Sassuolo generated just 1.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Atalanta. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'Andrea Pinamonti (Sassuolo) - Red Card
23'I. Kone scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)
69'K. Thorstvedt scores for Sassuolo (assist: A. Lauriente)
88'Y. Musah scores for Atalanta (assist: D. Zappacosta)
3.18
xG Created
1.52
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-01 · vs Sassuolo · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.2 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.18-1.52
MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Juventus · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.68-0.61
MW14 · 2025-12-06 · vs Hellas Verona · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.47-0.99

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Napoli · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.08
MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.96-0.97
MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Fiorentina · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.6-1.58

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 51.2 xG - wasting chances
-8.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 36.8 xGA opponents generated
+7.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (98 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.7
xPTS Gap
0.7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.6
Total CLS+4

Rank Per Signal

Where Atalanta ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
Finishing Luck
1
20
-8.5
8
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1.2
8
Discipline
1
20
-0.7
8
Schedule Strength
1
20
-0.6
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+1.7
15
Injury Burden
1
20
+6.2
18
Defensive Luck
1
20
+7.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atalanta are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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