Sevilla

Sevilla CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-3
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Sevilla are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 40.19 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

43
Points
Expected: 40.19
46
Goals Scored
xG: 38.48
59
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.6
2.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · away
1-2
Lost away against Espanyol

One of those games where nothing went right. Sevilla generated 1.82 xG, comfortably more than the 1.09 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Sevilla. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
48'P. Milla scores for Espanyol (assist: T. Dolan)
84'R. Fernandez Jaen scores for Espanyol (assist: U. Gonzalez)
86'L. Cabrera scores for Sevilla
1.82
xG Created
1.09
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.82-1.09
MW18 · 2026-01-04 · vs Levante · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.7-1.03
MW30 · 2026-04-05 · vs Oviedo · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.89
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Girona · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-2.12
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Alaves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.48-0.95

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 38.5 xG - clinical finishing
+12.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.9
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 55.6 xGA opponents generated
-4.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sevilla are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Celta Vigo
Bet