Sevilla Luck Index
2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →
-2
Luck Index Score
Sevilla are getting roughly what they deserve. 31 points vs 28.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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31
Points
Expected: 28.7
37
Goals Scored
xG: 30.5
49
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.72
2.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · away
1-2
Lost away against Espanyol
One of those games where nothing went right. Sevilla generated 1.82 xG, comfortably more than the 1.09 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Sevilla. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
48'P. Milla scores for Espanyol (assist: T. Dolan)
84'R. Fernandez Jaen scores for Espanyol (assist: U. Gonzalez)
86'L. Cabrera scores for Sevilla
1.82
xG Created
1.09
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.82-1.09
MW18 · 2026-01-04 · vs Levante · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.7-1.03
MW20 · 2026-01-19 · vs Elche · Away-1.1 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3-1.54
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.89
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Girona · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-2.12
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Alaves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.48-0.95
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 30.5 xG - clinical finishing
+11
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (147 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 48.7 xGA opponents generated
-1
Total Luck Index-1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|9 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Sevilla are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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