Sevilla

Sevilla CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+19
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Sevilla have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+9.3 CLS impact). 5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

13
Points
Expected: 8.42
10
Goals Scored
xG: 6.09
9
Goals Conceded
xGA: 9.01
4.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Atletico Madrid · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Atletico Madrid

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Sevilla. They got 0. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'A. Baena scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: Lee Kang-In)
26'A. Lookman scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: P. Barrios)
33'A. Baena scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: M. Llorente)
66'M. Sierra scores for Sevilla (assist: R. Ure)
0.9
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-1.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.9-0.93
MW7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Barcelona · Home-0.1 pts
Lost 1-3 home. xG: 0.4-3.5.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.4-3.47
MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Espanyol · Away+0.2 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.5-1.2.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.53-1.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-22 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.3 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.41-1.25
MW1 · 2026-08-15 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.19-1.89
MW6 · 2026-09-16 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Away+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.73-0.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+9.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 6.1 xG - clinical finishing
+7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (19 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 9.0 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.4
Total CLS+19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sevilla are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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