Sevilla

Sevilla CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-4
CLS Score

Sevilla are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 32.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

34
Points
Expected: 32.22
39
Goals Scored
xG: 33.01
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.04
1.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · away
1-2
Lost away against Espanyol

One of those games where nothing went right. Sevilla generated 1.82 xG, comfortably more than the 1.09 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Sevilla. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
48'P. Milla scores for Espanyol (assist: T. Dolan)
84'R. Fernandez Jaen scores for Espanyol (assist: U. Gonzalez)
86'L. Cabrera scores for Sevilla
1.82
xG Created
1.09
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.82-1.09
MW18 · 2026-01-04 · vs Levante · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.7-1.03
MW30 · 2026-04-05 · vs Oviedo · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-28 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.63-1.89
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Girona · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-2.12
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Alaves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.48-0.95

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 33.0 xG - clinical finishing
+9.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (154 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.5
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1.0 more goals than the 50.0 xGA opponents generated
-1.8
Total CLS-4

Rank Per Signal

Where Sevilla ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-5
5
Discipline
1
20
-2.4
6
Injury Burden
1
20
-4.5
8
Defensive Luck
1
20
-1.8
8
Schedule Strength
1
20
-2.9
14
xPTS Gap
1
20
+2.9
18
Finishing Luck
1
20
+9.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sevilla are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

Next Matches
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