Bologna Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+31

Luck Index Score

Bologna have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 42.81

Goals Scored

xG: 37.29

Goals Conceded

xGA: 37.51

2.2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Parma · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Parma

One of those games where nothing went right. Parma created almost nothing - just 0.18 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Bologna. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

22'Tommaso Pobega (Bologna) - Red Card

79'Mariano Troilo (Parma) - Red Card

90'C. Ordonez scores for Parma (assist: H. Nicolussi Caviglia)

1.11

xG Created

0.18

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Parma · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.11-0.18

MW13 · 2025-12-01 · vs Cremonese · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.72-2.13

MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs Genoa · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.55-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-15 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+2.0 pts

Won 3-2 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.79-1.2

MW31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Cremonese · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.14-1.42

MW27 · 2026-03-02 · vs Pisa · Away+1.6 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.64-0.47

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+22.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 37.3 xG - clinical finishing

+7.7

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3.8

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.2

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0.5 more goals than the 37.5 xGA opponents generated

-0.6

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+0.2

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

Total Luck Index+31

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Bologna are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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