Bologna

Bologna CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-13
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Bologna are getting roughly what they deserve. 2 points vs 7.63 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

2
Points
Expected: 7.63
3
Goals Scored
xG: 5.92
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.73
5.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Lazio · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Lazio

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Bologna generated 1.78 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Lazio generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Bologna. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'D. Frattesi scores for Lazio (assist: B. Dia)
1.78
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Lazio · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.78-0.63
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs Atalanta · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.05-0.15
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Napoli · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.3-1.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.29-1.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Torino · Home+-0.2 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 0.9-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.92-1.14
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Sassuolo · Home+-0.6 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.9-1.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.88-1.62
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Napoli · Away+-0.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.3-1.2.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.29-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 5.9 xG - wasting chances
-6.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (15 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 4.7 xGA opponents generated
-1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS-13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bologna are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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