Bologna

Bologna CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+22
CLS Score

Bologna have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 46.16
42
Goals Scored
xG: 40.04
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.14
1.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Parma · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Parma

One of those games where nothing went right. Parma created almost nothing - just 0.18 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Bologna. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Tommaso Pobega (Bologna) - Red Card
79'Mariano Troilo (Parma) - Red Card
90'C. Ordonez scores for Parma (assist: H. Nicolussi Caviglia)
1.11
xG Created
0.18
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-08 · vs Parma · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.11-0.18
MW13 · 2025-12-01 · vs Cremonese · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.72-2.13
MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs Genoa · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0.55-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-15 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.79-1.2
MW31 · 2026-04-05 · vs Cremonese · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.14-1.42
MW27 · 2026-03-02 · vs Pisa · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.64-0.47

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+17.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 40.0 xG - clinical finishing
+5.1
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (128 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 39.1 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Total CLS+22

Rank Per Signal

Where Bologna ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-1.9
8
Defensive Luck
1
20
-1.1
10
Discipline
1
20
+0.5
10
Injury Burden
1
20
-1.2
12
xPTS Gap
1
20
+2.8
13
Finishing Luck
1
20
+5.1
20
Schedule Strength
1
20
+17.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bologna are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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