Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-12
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach are getting roughly what they deserve. 0 points vs 2.83 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Points
Expected: 2.83
6
Goals Scored
xG: 3.64
16
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.87
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SV Elversberg · at home
3-4
Lost at home against SV Elversberg

One of those games where nothing went right. Borussia Mönchengladbach created 2.36 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Borussia Mönchengladbach. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
11'H. Bolin scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach
29'D. Mokwa Ntusu scores for SV Elversberg (assist: L. Pinckert)
44'H. Bolin scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach (assist: F. Honorat)
56'J. Scally scores for Borussia Mönchengladbach (assist: F. Honorat)
66'M. Krattenmacher scores for SV Elversberg
80'F. Keidel scores for SV Elversberg
90'M. Krattenmacher scores for SV Elversberg (assist: N. Futkeu)
2.36
xG Created
2.31
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs SV Elversberg · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.36-2.31
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs RB Leipzig · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 1.1-4.0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.09-3.96

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs SC Freiburg · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-5 away. xG: 0.2-2.6.
Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.19-2.6
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs RB Leipzig · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 1.1-4.0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.09-3.96
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Home+-1.0 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 more goals than the 8.9 xGA opponents generated
-2.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 3.6 xG - clinical finishing
+0.5
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Borussia Mönchengladbach are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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