Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+11
Luck Index Score

Boston Bruins are getting roughly what they deserve. 94 points vs 93.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

94
Points
Expected: 93.6
257
Goals For
Expected: 93.6
235
Goals Against
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-10-13 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Tampa Bay Lightning

One of those games where nothing went right. Boston Bruins created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Boston Bruins. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-10-13 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Tampa Bay Lightning. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW5 · 2025-10-16 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Vegas Golden Knights. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6 | xG: 5-6
MW8 · 2025-10-21 · vs Florida Panthers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Columbus Blue Jackets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW72 · 2026-03-25 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW52 · 2026-01-24 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
19-15 in one-goal games (56% win rate vs expected 50%)
+7
Shootout Record
4-3 in shootouts (net +1)
+3
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-1
Total Luck Index+11

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Montréal Canadiens
Montréal Canadiens
44W-21L-10OTL
+22Lucky
#6 in league
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
32W-31L-13OTL
0Neutral
#25 in league
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
46W-22L-8OTL
+28Lucky
#5 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Boston Bruins are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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