Buffalo Sabres CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 3 games played · View NHL standings →
+8
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Sabres are getting roughly what their play deserves. 4 points vs 3 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 3
10
Goals For
11
Goals Against
1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Blue Jackets · away
6-3
Lost away against Blue Jackets
Blown out by Columbus Blue Jackets 3-6. Tough night.
3
Goals
6
Opp. Goals
-0.7
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Blue Jackets · Away-0.7 pts
Blown out by Columbus Blue Jackets 3-6. Tough night.
Score: 3-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Blackhawks · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm3 · 2026-10-06 · vs Wild · Home+0.8 pts
Edged Minnesota Wild 3-2 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Close Games
2-0 in one-goal games (100% win rate vs expected 50%)
+5.3
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (16 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.3
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-1
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|79 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Sabres are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).