Buffalo Sabres Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+28

Luck Index Score

Buffalo Sabres are getting roughly what they deserve. 100 points vs 99.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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100

Points

Expected: 99.5

264

Goals For

Expected: 99.5

225

Goals Against

0.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Florida Panthers

One of those games where nothing went right. Buffalo Sabres created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Buffalo Sabres. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW6 · 2025-10-20 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away-0.7 pts

Lost to Montréal Canadiens 2-4.

Score: 2-4 | xG: 2-4

MW15 · 2025-11-08 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.7 pts

Blown out by Carolina Hurricanes 3-6. Tough night.

Score: 3-6 | xG: 3-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW75 · 2026-03-31 · vs New York Islanders · Home+0.9 pts

Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW64 · 2026-03-08 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 8-7. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 8-7 | xG: 8-7

MW30 · 2025-12-09 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record

5-0 in shootouts (net +5)

+15

Close Games

15-11 in one-goal games (58% win rate vs expected 50%)

+10

Pythagorean Delta

1 more points than their goal differential predicts

OT Loss Rate

8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT

Total Luck Index+29

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Buffalo Sabres are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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