Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+27
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Sabres have had the bounces go their way. The CLS says they're a bit above what their underlying play justifies. Nothing extreme, but worth watching. Top driver: Shootout Record (+13.9 CLS impact). 5-1 in shootouts (net +4)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

109
Points
Expected: 108.6
288
Goals For
241
Goals Against
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Panthers · at home
4-3
Lost at home against Panthers

Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Panthers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm6 · 2025-10-20 · vs Canadiens · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Montréal Canadiens 2-4.
Score: 2-4
Gm15 · 2025-11-08 · vs Hurricanes · Away-0.7 pts
Blown out by Carolina Hurricanes 3-6. Tough night.
Score: 3-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm75 · 2026-03-31 · vs Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm64 · 2026-03-08 · vs Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 8-7. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 8-7
Gm30 · 2025-12-09 · vs Oilers · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
5-1 in shootouts (net +4)
+13.9
Close Games
15-12 in one-goal games (56% win rate vs expected 50%)
+6.9
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2.9
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.2
Total CLS+27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Sabres are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available