Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+31
CLS Score

Buffalo Sabres have had the bounces go their way. The CLS says they're a bit above what their underlying play justifies. Nothing extreme, but worth watching.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

109
Points
Expected: 108.6
288
Goals For
241
Goals Against
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Florida Panthers

Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW6 · 2025-10-20 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Montréal Canadiens 2-4.
Score: 2-4
MW15 · 2025-11-08 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.7 pts
Blown out by Carolina Hurricanes 3-6. Tough night.
Score: 3-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW83 · 2026-04-19 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW75 · 2026-03-31 · vs New York Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW64 · 2026-03-08 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 8-7. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
5-1 in shootouts (net +4)
+13.2
Close Games
16-12 in one-goal games (57% win rate vs expected 50%)
+8.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (222 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.5
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2
Total CLS+31

Rank Per Signal

Where Buffalo Sabres ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

14
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
+2
22
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+2.8
24
Close Games
1
32
+8.5
26
Injury Burden
1
32
+4.5
30
Shootout Record
1
32
+13.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Buffalo Sabres are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available