Braves Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
-24
Luck Index Score
Braves are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 3.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 3.5
17
Runs Scored
Expected: 3.5
6
Runs Allowed
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-28
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.330 vs xwOBA 0.340 - hard contact not converting into hits
-9
Pitching Luck
ERA 1.92 vs xERA 2.97 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+5
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-25
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At -24, Braves are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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