Braves CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
-10
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Braves are getting what their run differential deserves. 52 wins vs 53.7 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
52
Wins
Expected: 53.7
422
Runs Scored
325
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm76 · 2026-06-18 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to D-backs. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm78 · 2026-06-20 · vs Brewers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Brewers (6-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm61 · 2026-06-02 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Blue Jays (6-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm55 · 2026-05-26 · vs Red Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Red Sox (9-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.33 vs xERA 3.82 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+11.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.324 - hard contact not converting into hits
-11
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.2
One-Run Game Record
10-10 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Total CLS-10
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Braves are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch.