Braves CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-9
CLS Score
Braves are getting what their run differential deserves. 16 wins vs 17.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
16
Wins
Expected: 17.6
131
Runs Scored
69
Runs Allowed
1.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 10 · 2026-04-05 · vs D-backs · away
5-6
Lost away against D-backs
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW10 · 2026-04-05 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW5 · 2026-03-31 · vs Athletics · Home-0.2 pts
Lost to Athletics 2-5.
Score: 2-5
MW9 · 2026-04-04 · vs D-backs · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 1-2 to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 1-2
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Marlins 6-5. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5
MW23 · 2026-04-20 · vs Nationals · Away+0.2 pts
Blew out Nationals 9-4. A dominant performance.
Score: 9-4
MW22 · 2026-04-19 · vs Phillies · Away+0.2 pts
Beat Phillies 4-2.
Score: 4-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-8.3
One-Run Game Record
Not enough one-run games yet (1-2)
-2.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.355 vs xwOBA 0.352 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.04 vs xERA 3.48 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS-9
Rank Per Signal
Where Braves ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
4-8.3
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
8-0.8
Injury Burden
1
30
9-2.3
One-Run Game Record
1
30
19+1
Pitching Luck
1
30
21+1.4
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Braves are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.