Braves CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 134 games played · View MLB standings →
+7
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Braves are getting what their run differential deserves. 75 wins vs 76.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
75
Wins
Expected: 76.5
610
Runs Scored
502
Runs Allowed
1.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm76 · 2026-06-18 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm91 · 2026-07-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Mets (12-12 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm113 · 2026-07-30 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Nationals (4-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm106 · 2026-07-24 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Orioles. Orioles left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm105 · 2026-07-23 · vs Padres · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Padres (9-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.59 vs xERA 4.05 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+15.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.320 - hard contact not converting into hits
-5.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.6
One-Run Game Record
19-19 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Total CLS+7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|28 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Braves are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 7th in the league - a tough run.