Braves

Braves CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 166 games played · View MLB standings →

+26
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Braves have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pitching Luck (+17.9 CLS impact). ERA 3.66 vs xERA 4.15 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

94
Wins
Expected: 93.5
742
Runs Scored
626
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · away
0-0
Lost away against White Sox

Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs White Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by White Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm76 · 2026-06-18 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm91 · 2026-07-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Mets (12-12 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm152 · 2026-09-11 · vs Phillies · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 11 innings against Phillies (11-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 6-5
Gm147 · 2026-09-06 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Phillies (10-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm137 · 2026-08-26 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Dodgers. Dodgers left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 3.66 vs xERA 4.15 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+17.9
One-Run Game Record
27-21 in one-run games (56% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.317 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.1
Total CLS+26

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Braves are riding their luck at +26. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available