Braves CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+8
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Braves are getting what their run differential deserves. 34 wins vs 34.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
34
Wins
Expected: 34.9
267
Runs Scored
169
Runs Allowed
0.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 10 · 2026-04-05 · vs D-backs · away
6-5
Lost away against D-backs
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to D-backs. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs D-backs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to D-backs. Left 10 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm36 · 2026-05-04 · vs Mariners · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Mariners (9-8 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Phillies · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 5-8 to Phillies (9-11 H). Phillies were the better team on the day.
Score: 5-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm33 · 2026-05-01 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 8-6 (9-8 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm31 · 2026-04-29 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (6-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm25 · 2026-04-22 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Nationals 8-6 (8-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 2.89 vs xERA 3.60 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.8
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.343 vs xwOBA 0.344 - hard contact not converting into hits
+1.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
One-Run Game Record
4-4 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
-0.2
Total CLS+8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Braves are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 16th).