Brewers

Brewers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

+29
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Brewers have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+10.8 CLS impact). 27-20 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

103
Wins
Expected: 102.5
832
Runs Scored
618
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · away
0-0
Lost away against Royals

Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm96 · 2026-07-10 · vs Pirates · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Pirates 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Athletics · Away+0.5 pts
Won 15-14 in 12 innings against Athletics. Athletics left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 15-14
Gm157 · 2026-09-18 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Orioles. Orioles left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm155 · 2026-09-16 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Pirates (10-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
27-20 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+10.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.330 vs xwOBA 0.323 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.70 vs xERA 3.74 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.2
Total CLS+29

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Brewers are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available