Brewers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →
+1
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Brewers are getting what their run differential deserves. 29 wins vs 31.4 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
29
Wins
Expected: 31.4
237
Runs Scored
162
Runs Allowed
2.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · away
0-0
Lost away against Royals
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Nationals. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm40 · 2026-05-10 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Yankees (6-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm39 · 2026-05-09 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Yankees (6-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Gm20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Marlins 7-5. 2 Marlins errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-10.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.319 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+5.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.1
One-Run Game Record
6-5 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.34 vs xERA 3.49 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.2
Total CLS+1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|113 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Brewers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run.