Brewers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 89 games played · View MLB standings →
-8
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Brewers are getting what their run differential deserves. 54 wins vs 56.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
54
Wins
Expected: 56.3
446
Runs Scored
320
Runs Allowed
2.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · away
0-0
Lost away against Royals
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Nationals. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Athletics · Away+0.5 pts
Won 15-14 in 12 innings against Athletics. Athletics left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 15-14
Gm80 · 2026-06-24 · vs Reds · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Reds. Reds left 16 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm63 · 2026-06-05 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 9-7 (8-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-10
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.327 vs xwOBA 0.322 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+6.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.6
One-Run Game Record
12-12 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.47 vs xERA 3.56 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.2
Total CLS-8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|73 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Brewers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).