Brewers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 144 games played · View MLB standings →
+12
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Brewers are getting what their run differential deserves. 87 wins vs 88 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
87
Wins
Expected: 88
705
Runs Scored
534
Runs Allowed
1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · away
0-0
Lost away against Royals
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Royals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Royals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm96 · 2026-07-10 · vs Pirates · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Pirates 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm66 · 2026-06-08 · vs Athletics · Away+0.5 pts
Won 15-14 in 12 innings against Athletics. Athletics left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 15-14
Gm125 · 2026-08-13 · vs Dodgers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Dodgers (10-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm121 · 2026-08-09 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Twins (8-5 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.330 vs xwOBA 0.323 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+7.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+5.7
One-Run Game Record
21-19 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.66 vs xERA 3.64 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-2.1
Total CLS+12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|18 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Brewers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 16th).