Calgary Flames CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →
-1
CLS Score
15th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Flames are getting roughly what their play deserves. 77 points vs 74.1 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
77
Points
Expected: 74.1
212
Goals For
259
Goals Against
2.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Maple Leafs · away
4-3
Lost away against Maple Leafs
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm32 · 2025-12-10 · vs Red Wings · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm41 · 2026-01-03 · vs Predators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm27 · 2025-11-30 · vs Hurricanes · Away+1.0 pts
Shut out on the road against Carolina Hurricanes. 1 goals conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-1
Gm70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm65 · 2026-03-12 · vs Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
3 more points than their goal differential predicts
+20.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
-8.4
Shootout Record
4-3 in shootouts (net +1)
+4
Close Games
14-15 in one-goal games (48% win rate vs expected 50%)
-2.9
Total CLS-1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Flames are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available