Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+4
CLS Score

Calgary Flames are getting roughly what their play deserves. 77 points vs 74.1 expected — neutral on the luck scale.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

77
Points
Expected: 74.1
212
Goals For
259
Goals Against
2.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · away
3-4
Lost away against Toronto Maple Leafs

Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW32 · 2025-12-10 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW41 · 2026-01-03 · vs Nashville Predators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-11-30 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away+1.0 pts
Shut out on the road against Carolina Hurricanes. 1 goals conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-1
MW70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW65 · 2026-03-12 · vs New Jersey Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more points than their goal differential predicts
+13.4
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
-5.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (322 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.6
Shootout Record
4-3 in shootouts (net +1)
+2.7
Close Games
14-15 in one-goal games (48% win rate vs expected 50%)
-1.9
Total CLS+4

Rank Per Signal

Where Calgary Flames ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

10
OT Loss Rate
1
32
-5.6
10
Injury Burden
1
32
-4.6
16
Close Games
1
32
-1.9
19
Shootout Record
1
32
+2.7
23
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
+13.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Calgary Flames are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available