Edmonton Oilers Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-38

Luck Index Score

Edmonton Oilers are getting roughly what they deserve. 87 points vs 89.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 89.9

264

Goals For

Expected: 89.9

252

Goals Against

2.9

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 19 · 2025-11-13 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · away

4-5

Lost away against Columbus Blue Jackets

One of those games where nothing went right. Edmonton Oilers created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Edmonton Oilers. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW19 · 2025-11-13 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 4-5 against Columbus Blue Jackets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

MW58 · 2026-02-04 · vs Calgary Flames · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW59 · 2026-02-25 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 5-6 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 5-6 | xG: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW73 · 2026-03-26 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW65 · 2026-03-10 · vs Colorado Avalanche · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Colorado Avalanche 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW62 · 2026-03-03 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Ottawa Senators 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

3 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

-15

Close Games

13-19 in one-goal games (41% win rate vs expected 50%)

-12

Shootout Record

0-3 in shootouts (net -3)

-9

OT Loss Rate

9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

-1

Total Luck Index-37

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: improving|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -38, Edmonton Oilers are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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