Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton Oilers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-50
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Oilers have been robbed by hockey's coin flips. 93 points from 96.7 expected — the kind of gap that shows up when shootouts, OT losses, and one-goal games have all gone the wrong way. The underlying performance says they're better than the standings show. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-19.5 CLS impact). 4 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

93
Points
Expected: 96.7
282
Goals For
269
Goals Against
3.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 19 · 2025-11-13 · vs Blue Jackets · away
5-4
Lost away against Blue Jackets

Lost 4-5 against Columbus Blue Jackets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-11-13 · vs Blue Jackets · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Columbus Blue Jackets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm58 · 2026-02-04 · vs Flames · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm59 · 2026-02-25 · vs Ducks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 5-6 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm73 · 2026-03-26 · vs Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm65 · 2026-03-10 · vs Avalanche · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Colorado Avalanche 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm62 · 2026-03-03 · vs Senators · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Ottawa Senators 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-19.5
Shootout Record
0-4 in shootouts (net -4)
-16.8
Close Games
13-22 in one-goal games (37% win rate vs expected 50%)
-16.5
OT Loss Rate
11 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.2
Total CLS-50

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Oilers are deeply cursed at -50. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available