Reds

Reds CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

+42
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Reds are riding sequencing luck. 75 wins from 65.2 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+33.4 CLS impact). 10 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

75
Wins
Expected: 65.2
666
Runs Scored
826
Runs Allowed
9.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cardinals

Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm107 · 2026-07-27 · vs Guardians · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm137 · 2026-08-26 · vs Giants · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Giants. 2 Giants errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 10-9
Gm162 · 2026-09-24 · vs Braves · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Braves despite being outhit 12-7. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 7-6
Gm152 · 2026-09-13 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Brewers (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
10 more wins than their run differential predicts
+33.4
One-Run Game Record
26-17 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+15.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.312 - hard contact not converting into hits
-14.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.85 vs xERA 5.02 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+5.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.4
Total CLS+42

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +42, Reds are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available