Reds CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+6
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Reds are getting what their run differential deserves. 26 wins vs 22.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
26
Wins
Expected: 22.3
221
Runs Scored
249
Runs Allowed
3.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 35 · 2026-05-04 · vs Cubs · away
5-4
Lost away against Cubs
Lost 4-5 to Cubs despite outhitting them 10-6. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm35 · 2026-05-04 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs despite outhitting them 10-6. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 4-5
Gm37 · 2026-05-06 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 6-7 to Cubs in 10 innings (10-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 6-7
Gm43 · 2026-05-13 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Nationals in 10 innings (7-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm45 · 2026-05-15 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Guardians. Guardians left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm26 · 2026-04-24 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 against Tigers (11-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 9-8
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Twins. Twins left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.314 vs xwOBA 0.333 - hard contact not converting into hits
-13.3
One-Run Game Record
8-6 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.87 vs xERA 5.08 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.3
Total CLS+6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Reds are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 15th).