Reds CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+28
CLS Score
Reds have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
15
Wins
Expected: 11.1
84
Runs Scored
87
Runs Allowed
3.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Marlins · away
4-7
Lost away against Marlins
Lost to Marlins 4-7.
4
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.3
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Marlins · Away-0.3 pts
Lost to Marlins 4-7.
Score: 4-7
MW16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Angels · Home-0.3 pts
Lost to Angels 6-9.
Score: 6-9
MW5 · 2026-03-31 · vs Pirates · Home-0.1 pts
Blown out by Pirates 3-8. Tough day at the ballpark.
Score: 3-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Twins 5-4. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Red Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Red Sox 6-5 in 11 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5
MW22 · 2026-04-19 · vs Twins · Away+0.3 pts
Outlasted Twins 7-4 in 10 innings. Extra baseball went their way.
Score: 7-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+18.7
One-Run Game Record
6-0 in one-run games (100% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.294 vs xwOBA 0.323 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.58 vs xERA 4.73 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+3.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.1
Total CLS+28
Rank Per Signal
Where Reds ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
2-4.5
Batting Luck
1
30
17+0.1
Injury Burden
1
30
30+18.7
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
30+9.9
One-Run Game Record
1
30
30+3.8
Pitching Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Reds are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.