Reds

Reds CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →

+17
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Reds have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pitching Luck (+15.1 CLS impact). ERA 4.44 vs xERA 5.06 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

40
Wins
Expected: 37.9
369
Runs Scored
430
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cardinals

Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm35 · 2026-05-04 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs despite outhitting them 10-6. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm83 · 2026-06-27 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Pirates 9-7 (10-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Gm62 · 2026-06-02 · vs Royals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Royals. Royals left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 11 innings against Cardinals. Cardinals left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 4.44 vs xERA 5.06 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+15.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.308 vs xwOBA 0.322 - hard contact not converting into hits
-13.8
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+9.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.5
One-Run Game Record
11-10 in one-run games (52% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|72 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Reds are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 8th in the league - a tough run. That makes the correction more likely.

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