Reds Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
+45
Luck Index Score
Reds are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 2.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 2.2
11
Runs Scored
Expected: 2.2
10
Runs Allowed
0.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+37
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.288 vs xwOBA 0.310 - hard contact not converting into hits
-21
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.61 vs xERA 5.92 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+20
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+9
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+45
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At +45, Reds are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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