Reds

Reds CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 133 games played · View MLB standings →

+40
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Reds are riding sequencing luck. 62 wins from 55.6 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+25.0 CLS impact). 6 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

62
Wins
Expected: 55.6
534
Runs Scored
626
Runs Allowed
6.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Cardinals

Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm107 · 2026-07-27 · vs Guardians · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm130 · 2026-08-19 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Cardinals. Cardinals left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Gm128 · 2026-08-17 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Cardinals. Cardinals left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm123 · 2026-08-13 · vs White Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 against White Sox despite being outhit 12-8. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 9-8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their run differential predicts
+25
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.314 - hard contact not converting into hits
-16.5
One-Run Game Record
22-14 in one-run games (61% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+14.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.46 vs xERA 4.77 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.3
Total CLS+40

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|29 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Reds are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
08-23
A
D-backs
Bet
08-24
A
Giants
Bet
08-25
A
Giants
Bet
08-26
A
Giants
Bet
08-28
A
Cubs
Bet