Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Hurricanes CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+41
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Hurricanes have been living on borrowed time. 113 points from 111.4 expected — shootout wins and narrow escapes padding the record. The data says the wheels are overdue to wobble. Top driver: Close Games (+23.8 CLS impact). 24-11 in one-goal games (69% win rate vs expected 50%)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

113
Points
Expected: 111.4
296
Goals For
240
Goals Against
1.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 63 · 2026-03-07 · vs Flames · away
5-4
Lost away against Flames

Lost 4-5 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm63 · 2026-03-07 · vs Flames · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Stars · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
Gm35 · 2025-12-20 · vs Lightning · Away-0.8 pts
Lost to Tampa Bay Lightning 4-6.
Score: 4-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm78 · 2026-04-07 · vs Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm76 · 2026-04-04 · vs Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm69 · 2026-03-20 · vs Maple Leafs · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
24-11 in one-goal games (69% win rate vs expected 50%)
+23.8
Pythagorean Delta
2 more points than their goal differential predicts
+8.5
Injury Burden
No injury data available
+7.1
Shootout Record
5-4 in shootouts (net +1)
+2.6
OT Loss Rate
7 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-1
Total CLS+41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +41, Hurricanes are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available