New York Rangers Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-59

Luck Index Score

New York Rangers can't catch a break. 71 points when they deserve 78.7? That's 7.7 points stolen by the football gods. 45 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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Points

Expected: 78.7

217

Goals For

Expected: 78.7

236

Goals Against

7.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 51 · 2026-01-20 · vs Los Angeles Kings · away

3-4

Lost away against Los Angeles Kings

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Rangers created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for New York Rangers. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW51 · 2026-01-20 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW56 · 2026-01-31 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 5-6 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 5-6 | xG: 5-6

MW72 · 2026-03-25 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW53 · 2026-01-26 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Boston Bruins 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW37 · 2025-12-20 · vs Philadelphia Flyers · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

MW33 · 2025-12-13 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Montréal Canadiens 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

8 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

-41

Close Games

11-20 in one-goal games (35% win rate vs expected 50%)

-19

Shootout Record

3-1 in shootouts (net +2)

OT Loss Rate

9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

-5

Total Luck Index-59

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

New York Rangers are deeply cursed at -59. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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