Washington Capitals

Washington Capitals CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-45
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Capitals have been robbed by hockey's coin flips. 95 points from 99.2 expected — the kind of gap that shows up when shootouts, OT losses, and one-goal games have all gone the wrong way. The underlying performance says they're better than the standings show. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-21.9 CLS impact). 4 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

95
Points
Expected: 99.2
263
Goals For
244
Goals Against
4.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2025-10-19 · vs Canucks · at home
4-3
Lost at home against Canucks

Lost 3-4 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-10-19 · vs Canucks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Senators · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm51 · 2026-01-21 · vs Canucks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm74 · 2026-03-28 · vs Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm56 · 2026-01-31 · vs Hurricanes · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Carolina Hurricanes 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm55 · 2026-01-29 · vs Red Wings · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-21.9
Shootout Record
2-6 in shootouts (net -4)
-11.9
Close Games
13-17 in one-goal games (43% win rate vs expected 50%)
-8.3
OT Loss Rate
9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
-2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS-45

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Capitals are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available