Washington Capitals CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 2 games played · View NHL standings →
-3
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Capitals are getting roughly what their play deserves. 2 points vs 2.6 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
2
Points
Expected: 2.6
6
Goals For
5
Goals Against
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Lightning · away
3-1
Lost away against Lightning
Lost to Tampa Bay Lightning 1-3.
1
Goals
3
Opp. Goals
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Lightning · Away-0.5 pts
Lost to Tampa Bay Lightning 1-3.
Score: 1-3
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-10-02 · vs Hurricanes · Away+0.6 pts
Dominated Carolina Hurricanes 5-2. A convincing win that the scoreline reflects.
Score: 5-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-2.7
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-0.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.6
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
0
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS-3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|80 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Capitals are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 9th in the league - a tough run.