Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte Hornets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

0
CLS Score
17th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Hornets are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 44 wins vs 46.4 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

44
Wins
Expected: 46.4
9513
Points For
9117
Points Against
2.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 10 · 2025-11-11 · vs Lakers · at home
121-111
Lost at home against Lakers

Lost 111-121 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 64% to 58% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

64.1%
Team eFG%
57.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm10 · 2025-11-11 · vs Lakers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 111-121 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 64% to 58% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 111-121 | eFG%: 64.1-57.8
Gm37 · 2026-01-08 · vs Raptors · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 96-97 to Toronto Raptors shooting just 48% eFG (-7.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 96-97 | eFG%: 47.6-45.1
Gm54 · 2026-02-10 · vs Pistons · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Detroit Pistons 104-110. Shot 53% eFG vs their 50%.
Score: 104-110 | eFG%: 53-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Trail Blazers · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Portland Trail Blazers 103-101 despite being outshot 47% to 52% eFG. Portland Trail Blazers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 103-101 | eFG%: 46.6-51.8
Gm50 · 2026-01-31 · vs Spurs · Home+0.7 pts
Beat San Antonio Spurs 111-106. Shot 52% eFG vs their 56%.
Score: 111-106 | eFG%: 51.7-55.6
Gm67 · 2026-03-12 · vs Kings · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Sacramento Kings 117-109. Shot 56% eFG vs their 59%.
Score: 117-109 | eFG%: 56.1-59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 67 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.8% vs league)
+6.2
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-4.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+3.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 80.1% FT vs league average — 30 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.7
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 4 close games (-1.5 avg margin)
-1.9
Off 2P Luck
Made 45 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.8% vs league)
-1.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 43 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (54.0% vs league)
+1.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 1 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.1
Total CLS0

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hornets are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available