Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte Hornets Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-75
Luck Index Score

Charlotte Hornets are the definition of "we deserved more." With 42 points from 50.8 expected, they've been robbed of 8.8 points this season. 0 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 0 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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42
Wins
Expected: 50.8
9079
Points For
Expected: 50.8
8682
Points Against
8.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 34 · 2026-01-03 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · away
121-122
Lost away against Milwaukee Bucks

One of those games where nothing went right. Charlotte Hornets created 121 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 121 goals on an average day. They scored 121. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Charlotte Hornets. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

121
xG Created
122
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-01-03 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 121-122 to Milwaukee Bucks. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 121-122 | xG: 121-122
MW37 · 2026-01-08 · vs Toronto Raptors · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 96-97 to Toronto Raptors. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 96-97 | xG: 96-97
MW2 · 2025-10-25 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 121-125.
Score: 121-125 | xG: 121-125

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Portland Trail Blazers 103-101. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 103-101 | xG: 103-101
MW55 · 2026-02-12 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Atlanta Hawks 110-107. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 110-107 | xG: 110-107
MW49 · 2026-01-30 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Dallas Mavericks 123-121. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 123-121 | xG: 123-121

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
9 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-47
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-29
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.9% above expected from shot locations (55.4% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+7
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-6
Total Luck Index-75

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Charlotte Hornets are deeply cursed at -75. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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