Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+31
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Cavaliers have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Close Game Record (+12.7 CLS impact). 64% win rate in 11 close games (+1.9 avg margin)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 48.1
9800
Points For
9464
Points Against
3.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · away
119-111
Lost away against Knicks

Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.6%
Team eFG%
51.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 111-119 | eFG%: 57.6-51.2
Gm37 · 2026-01-04 · vs Pistons · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Detroit Pistons 110-114. Shot 53% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 110-114 | eFG%: 52.5-48.9
Gm61 · 2026-02-28 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 119-122 to Detroit Pistons in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 119-122 | eFG%: 52.7-49

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-13 · vs Wizards · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 130-126 despite being outshot 50% to 58% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-126 | eFG%: 50-58.1
Gm3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 118-113 despite being outshot 52% to 59% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-113 | eFG%: 51.7-58.9
Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 130-116 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-116 | eFG%: 50-55.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
64% win rate in 11 close games (+1.9 avg margin)
+12.7
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+11.2
Injury Burden
No injury data available
+8.9
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 38 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.2% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-6.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 115 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.8% vs league)
+5.3
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.4% FT vs league average — 22 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 73 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.3% vs league)
+2.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 0 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.0% vs league)
0
Total CLS+31

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cavaliers are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available