Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+22
CLS Score

Cleveland Cavaliers have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 48.6
9800
Points For
9464
Points Against
3.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-22 · vs New York Knicks · away
111-119
Lost away against New York Knicks

Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.6%
Team eFG%
51.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-22 · vs New York Knicks · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 111-119 | eFG%: 57.6-51.2
MW37 · 2026-01-04 · vs Detroit Pistons · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Detroit Pistons 110-114. Shot 53% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 110-114 | eFG%: 52.5-48.9
MW61 · 2026-02-28 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 119-122 to Detroit Pistons in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 119-122 | eFG%: 52.7-49

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2025-12-13 · vs Washington Wizards · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 130-126 despite being outshot 50% to 58% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-126 | eFG%: 50-58.1
MW3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 118-113 despite being outshot 52% to 59% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-113 | eFG%: 51.7-58.9
MW12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Miami Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 130-116 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-116 | eFG%: 50-55.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+25.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (220 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-3.2
Total CLS+22

Rank Per Signal

Where Cleveland Cavaliers ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Injury Burden
1
30
-3.2
24
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+25.2

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

Cleveland Cavaliers have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
23-19
0.5% win rate
Second Half
31-11
0.7% win rate
Win rate decline
-0pp
Close game collapse
-0pp
Point differential decline
-3.3pts/game
Late losing streaks
0 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
36%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cleveland Cavaliers are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available