Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-1
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Cavaliers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 1.8 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 1.8
348
Points For
361
Points Against
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · away
119-111
Lost away against Knicks

Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.6%
Team eFG%
51.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 111-119 | eFG%: 57.6-51.2
Gm37 · 2026-01-04 · vs Pistons · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Detroit Pistons 110-114. Shot 53% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 110-114 | eFG%: 52.5-48.9
Gm61 · 2026-02-28 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 119-122 to Detroit Pistons in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 119-122 | eFG%: 52.7-49

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-13 · vs Wizards · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 130-126 despite being outshot 50% to 58% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-126 | eFG%: 50-58.1
Gm3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 118-113 despite being outshot 52% to 59% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-113 | eFG%: 51.7-58.9
Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 130-116 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-116 | eFG%: 50-55.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.2
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 38 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.2% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.5
Off 2P Luck
Made 115 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.8% vs league)
+1.2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 73 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.3% vs league)
+0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.4% FT vs league average — 22 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.6
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 3P Luck
Made 0 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.0% vs league)
0
Total CLS-1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cavaliers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available