Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-2
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Cavaliers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 48.1 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 48.1
0
Points For
0
Points Against
48.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · away
119-111
Lost away against Knicks

Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

57.6%
Team eFG%
51.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Knicks · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 111-119 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 51% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 111-119 | eFG%: 57.6-51.2
Gm37 · 2026-01-04 · vs Pistons · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Detroit Pistons 110-114. Shot 53% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 110-114 | eFG%: 52.5-48.9
Gm61 · 2026-02-28 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 119-122 to Detroit Pistons in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 119-122 | eFG%: 52.7-49

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-13 · vs Wizards · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 130-126 despite being outshot 50% to 58% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-126 | eFG%: 50-58.1
Gm3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 118-113 despite being outshot 52% to 59% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-113 | eFG%: 51.7-58.9
Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Heat · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 130-116 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 130-116 | eFG%: 50-55.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
48 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (1 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 38 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.2% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1
Off 2P Luck
Made 115 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (57.8% vs league)
+0.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 73 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.3% vs league)
+0.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.4% FT vs league average — 22 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.4
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 3P Luck
Made 0 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.0% vs league)
0
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cavaliers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available