Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-18
CLS Score
📉 Tank Mode

Chicago Bulls can't seem to close games. 31 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 32.1. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

31
Wins
Expected: 32.1
9537
Points For
9964
Points Against
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 17 · 2025-11-25 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · away
130-143
Lost away against New Orleans Pelicans

Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

64.6%
Team eFG%
57.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-11-25 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-143 | eFG%: 64.6-57.2
MW60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 112-121 to Portland Trail Blazers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-121 | eFG%: 55.6-49.5
MW36 · 2026-01-06 · vs Boston Celtics · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Boston Celtics 101-115. Shot 53% eFG vs their 50%.
Score: 101-115 | eFG%: 53.5-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Washington Wizards · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 121-120 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-120 | eFG%: 48-54.2
MW65 · 2026-03-11 · vs Golden State Warriors · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Golden State Warriors 130-124. Shot 51% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 130-124 | eFG%: 51.3-51.4
MW44 · 2026-01-23 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 120-115. Shot 54% eFG vs their 54%.
Score: 120-115 | eFG%: 54.1-54.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 27 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-4.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.8
Close Game Record
43% win rate in 7 close games (-0.3 avg margin)
-1.9
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 15 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+1.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 13 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-1.6
Off 2P Luck
Made 35 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.9% vs league)
+1.6
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 20 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.6
Total CLS-18

Rank Per Signal

Where Chicago Bulls ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Injury Burden
1
30
-10.1
8
Def 3P Luck
1
30
-4.4
12
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-2.8
12
Close Game Record
1
30
-1.9
12
Off 3P Luck
1
30
-1.6
13
Def 2P Luck
1
30
-0.6
22
Off 2P Luck
1
30
+1.6
22
Opp FT Luck
1
30
+1.8

Tank Watch

Tank Mode (48/100)

Chicago Bulls show some tank-like patterns. Second-half decline is notable.

First Half
19-22
0.5% win rate
Second Half
12-29
0.3% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
3.5pts/game
Late losing streaks
2 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
39%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Chicago Bulls are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available