Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-22
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Bulls can't seem to close games. 31 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 32.1. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression. Top driver: Injury Burden (-12.5 CLS impact). High injury burden (30 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

31
Wins
Expected: 32.1
9537
Points For
9964
Points Against
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · away
143-130
Lost away against Pelicans

Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

64.6%
Team eFG%
57.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-143 | eFG%: 64.6-57.2
Gm60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Trail Blazers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 112-121 to Portland Trail Blazers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-121 | eFG%: 55.6-49.5
Gm36 · 2026-01-06 · vs Celtics · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Boston Celtics 101-115. Shot 53% eFG vs their 50%.
Score: 101-115 | eFG%: 53.5-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Wizards · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 121-120 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-120 | eFG%: 48-54.2
Gm65 · 2026-03-11 · vs Warriors · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Golden State Warriors 130-124. Shot 51% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 130-124 | eFG%: 51.3-51.4
Gm44 · 2026-01-23 · vs Timberwolves · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 120-115. Shot 54% eFG vs their 54%.
Score: 120-115 | eFG%: 54.1-54.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (30 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-12.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 26 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-4.5
Close Game Record
33% win rate in 3 close games (-1.3 avg margin)
-3.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.7
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 16 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2
Off 3P Luck
Made 13 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-1.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 35 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.9% vs league)
+1.6
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 18 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.6
Total CLS-22

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Bulls are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available