Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-13
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Bulls are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 31 wins vs 32.1 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

31
Wins
Expected: 32.1
9537
Points For
9964
Points Against
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · away
143-130
Lost away against Pelicans

Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

64.6%
Team eFG%
57.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-143 | eFG%: 64.6-57.2
Gm60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Trail Blazers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 112-121 to Portland Trail Blazers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-121 | eFG%: 55.6-49.5
Gm36 · 2026-01-06 · vs Celtics · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Boston Celtics 101-115. Shot 53% eFG vs their 50%.
Score: 101-115 | eFG%: 53.5-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Wizards · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 121-120 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-120 | eFG%: 48-54.2
Gm65 · 2026-03-11 · vs Warriors · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Golden State Warriors 130-124. Shot 51% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 130-124 | eFG%: 51.3-51.4
Gm44 · 2026-01-23 · vs Timberwolves · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 120-115. Shot 54% eFG vs their 54%.
Score: 120-115 | eFG%: 54.1-54.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 26 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-5.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-5.3
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-3.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 16 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2.6
Off 3P Luck
Made 13 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-2.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 35 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.9% vs league)
+2.1
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 18 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.8
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available