Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-2
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Bulls are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 32.1 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 32.1
0
Points For
0
Points Against
32.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · away
143-130
Lost away against Pelicans

Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

64.6%
Team eFG%
57.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Pelicans · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 130-143 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 130-143 | eFG%: 64.6-57.2
Gm60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Trail Blazers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 112-121 to Portland Trail Blazers despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-121 | eFG%: 55.6-49.5
Gm36 · 2026-01-06 · vs Celtics · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Boston Celtics 101-115. Shot 53% eFG vs their 50%.
Score: 101-115 | eFG%: 53.5-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Wizards · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 121-120 despite being outshot 48% to 54% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-120 | eFG%: 48-54.2
Gm65 · 2026-03-11 · vs Warriors · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Golden State Warriors 130-124. Shot 51% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 130-124 | eFG%: 51.3-51.4
Gm44 · 2026-01-23 · vs Timberwolves · Away+0.5 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 120-115. Shot 54% eFG vs their 54%.
Score: 120-115 | eFG%: 54.1-54.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
32 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.2
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 26 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1.1
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 16 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 13 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-0.4
Off 2P Luck
Made 35 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.9% vs league)
+0.4
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 18 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.2
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bulls are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available