Minnesota Wild Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+16

Luck Index Score

Minnesota Wild are getting roughly what they deserve. 96 points vs 95.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 95.3

247

Goals For

Expected: 95.3

218

Goals Against

0.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 15 · 2025-11-06 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · away

3-4

Lost away against Carolina Hurricanes

One of those games where nothing went right. Minnesota Wild created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Minnesota Wild. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-11-06 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW51 · 2026-01-20 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW2 · 2025-10-11 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Home-0.7 pts

Blown out by Columbus Blue Jackets 4-7. Tough night.

Score: 4-7 | xG: 4-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW69 · 2026-03-17 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW58 · 2026-02-04 · vs Nashville Predators · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Nashville Predators 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5

MW57 · 2026-02-02 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Montréal Canadiens 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

OT Loss Rate

12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

+10

Close Games

18-15 in one-goal games (55% win rate vs expected 50%)

Pythagorean Delta

1 more points than their goal differential predicts

Shootout Record

4-5 in shootouts (net -1)

-3

Total Luck Index+17

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Minnesota Wild are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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