Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+15
Luck Index Score

Dallas Stars are getting roughly what they deserve. 102 points vs 103.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

102
Points
Expected: 103.7
258
Goals For
Expected: 103.7
209
Goals Against
1.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · away
3-4
Lost away against Chicago Blackhawks

One of those games where nothing went right. Dallas Stars created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Dallas Stars. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Chicago Blackhawks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW4 · 2025-10-16 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Home-0.8 pts
Lost to Vancouver Canucks 3-5.
Score: 3-5 | xG: 3-5
MW14 · 2025-11-06 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Home-0.8 pts
Lost to Anaheim Ducks 5-7.
Score: 5-7 | xG: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW63 · 2026-03-08 · vs Chicago Blackhawks · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Chicago Blackhawks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW57 · 2026-02-04 · vs St. Louis Blues · Home+0.9 pts
Edged St. Louis Blues 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW56 · 2026-02-02 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+12
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-9
Close Games
24-18 in one-goal games (57% win rate vs expected 50%)
+9
Shootout Record
5-4 in shootouts (net +1)
+3
Total Luck Index+15

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues
32W-31L-12OTL
+10Neutral
#27 in league
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
49W-15L-10OTL
-29Unlucky
#1 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Dallas Stars are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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