Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

+33
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 32 in the NHL

Stars have had the bounces go their way. The CLS says they're a bit above what their underlying play justifies. Nothing extreme, but worth watching. Top driver: Close Games (+14.2 CLS impact). 28-18 in one-goal games (61% win rate vs expected 50%)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

112
Points
Expected: 111.5
279
Goals For
226
Goals Against
0.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Blackhawks · away
4-3
Lost away against Blackhawks

Lost 3-4 against Chicago Blackhawks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm41 · 2026-01-01 · vs Blackhawks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Chicago Blackhawks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm4 · 2025-10-16 · vs Canucks · Home-0.8 pts
Lost to Vancouver Canucks 3-5.
Score: 3-5
Gm14 · 2025-11-06 · vs Ducks · Home-0.8 pts
Lost to Anaheim Ducks 5-7.
Score: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm82 · 2026-04-15 · vs Sabres · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm81 · 2026-04-13 · vs Maple Leafs · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm79 · 2026-04-09 · vs Wild · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Minnesota Wild 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
28-18 in one-goal games (61% win rate vs expected 50%)
+14.2
OT Loss Rate
12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+12
Shootout Record
6-4 in shootouts (net +2)
+5
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.8
Total CLS+33

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Stars are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available