Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+4
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Timberwolves are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 0.6 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 0.6
116
Points For
97
Points Against
0.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Thunder · away
116-103
Lost away against Thunder

Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

56.5%
Team eFG%
49%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 103-116 | eFG%: 56.5-49
Gm24 · 2025-12-09 · vs Suns · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 105-108 to Phoenix Suns in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 105-108 | eFG%: 53.6-52.2
Gm17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Kings · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 112-117 to Sacramento Kings shooting just 48% eFG (-8.0 below season avg), including 13/42 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 112-117 | eFG%: 47.9-46.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm15 · 2025-11-20 · vs Wizards · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 120-109 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 120-109 | eFG%: 51.6-56.8
Gm62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Grizzlies · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Memphis Grizzlies 117-110. Shot 54% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 117-110 | eFG%: 53.6-55.1
Gm52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Raptors · Away+0.6 pts
Edged Toronto Raptors 128-126 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 128-126 | eFG%: 58.8-61.2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.3
Off 3P Luck
Made 31 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.0% vs league)
+0.7
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 106 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (52.7% vs league)
+0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.5
Off 2P Luck
Made 51 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.2% vs league)
+0.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 12 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.1% FT vs league average — 4 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.1
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Timberwolves are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available