Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+28
CLS Score

Minnesota Timberwolves have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

49
Wins
Expected: 45.9
9676
Points For
9401
Points Against
3.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · away
103-116
Lost away against Oklahoma City Thunder

Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

56.5%
Team eFG%
49%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 103-116 | eFG%: 56.5-49
MW24 · 2025-12-09 · vs Phoenix Suns · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 105-108 to Phoenix Suns in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 105-108 | eFG%: 53.6-52.2
MW83 · 2026-04-18 · vs Denver Nuggets · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 105-116. Shot 52% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 105-116 | eFG%: 52.3-49.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-11-20 · vs Washington Wizards · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 120-109 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 120-109 | eFG%: 51.6-56.8
MW62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Memphis Grizzlies 117-110. Shot 54% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 117-110 | eFG%: 53.6-55.1
MW52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Toronto Raptors · Away+0.6 pts
Edged Toronto Raptors 128-126 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 128-126 | eFG%: 58.8-61.2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+22.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (112 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+5.4
Total CLS+28

Rank Per Signal

Where Minnesota Timberwolves ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

22
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+22.6
25
Injury Burden
1
30
+5.4

Tank Watch

On the Fence (19/100)

Minnesota Timberwolves are on the fence. Some decline but nothing conclusive.

First Half
27-15
0.6% win rate
Second Half
23-19
0.5% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
4.6pts/game
Late losing streaks
0 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
29%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Minnesota Timberwolves are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available