Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+55
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Timberwolves are riding the coin flips. 49 wins from 46.2 expected — that 2.8-game gap is the kind of luck that doesn't last. When the close-game variance evens out, the record follows. Top driver: Close Game Record (+27.9 CLS impact). 100% win rate in 4 close games (+4.0 avg margin)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

49
Wins
Expected: 46.2
9676
Points For
9401
Points Against
2.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Thunder · away
116-103
Lost away against Thunder

Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

56.5%
Team eFG%
49%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm68 · 2026-03-15 · vs Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 103-116 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 49% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 103-116 | eFG%: 56.5-49
Gm24 · 2025-12-09 · vs Suns · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 105-108 to Phoenix Suns in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 105-108 | eFG%: 53.6-52.2
Gm17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Kings · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 112-117 to Sacramento Kings shooting just 48% eFG (-8.0 below season avg), including 13/42 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 112-117 | eFG%: 47.9-46.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm15 · 2025-11-20 · vs Wizards · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 120-109 despite being outshot 52% to 57% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 120-109 | eFG%: 51.6-56.8
Gm62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Grizzlies · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Memphis Grizzlies 117-110. Shot 54% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 117-110 | eFG%: 53.6-55.1
Gm52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Raptors · Away+0.6 pts
Edged Toronto Raptors 128-126 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 128-126 | eFG%: 58.8-61.2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
100% win rate in 4 close games (+4.0 avg margin)
+27.9
Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+9.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 31 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.0% vs league)
+4.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 106 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (52.7% vs league)
+4.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+3.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 51 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (56.2% vs league)
+2.6
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 12 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+2.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.1% FT vs league average — 4 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.6
Total CLS+55

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +55, Timberwolves are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available