Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+49
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pistons are riding the coin flips. 60 wins from 54.5 expected — that 5.5-game gap is the kind of luck that doesn't last. When the close-game variance evens out, the record follows. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+19.9 CLS impact). 6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

60
Wins
Expected: 54.5
9657
Points For
8988
Points Against
5.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 19 · 2025-11-29 · vs Magic · at home
112-109
Lost at home against Magic

Lost 109-112 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 51% to 44% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

50.6%
Team eFG%
43.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-11-29 · vs Magic · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 109-112 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 51% to 44% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 109-112 | eFG%: 50.6-43.8
Gm31 · 2025-12-27 · vs Jazz · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 129-131 to Utah Jazz as they shot 59% eFG and hit 18/38 from three, well above their 54% season average. Got shot out of the building.
Score: 129-131 | eFG%: 62-58.9
Gm34 · 2026-01-02 · vs Heat · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 112-118. Shot 53% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 112-118 | eFG%: 53.1-50.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Wizards · Home+0.9 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 137-135 despite being outshot 47% to 61% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 137-135 | eFG%: 46.9-60.5
Gm58 · 2026-02-28 · vs Cavaliers · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Cleveland Cavaliers 122-119 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 122-119 | eFG%: 49-52.7
Gm45 · 2026-01-28 · vs Nuggets · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Denver Nuggets 109-107 as they shot 54% eFG (-4.2 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-107 | eFG%: 50-53.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+19.9
Injury Burden
No injury data available
+15.9
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 44 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+9.9
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 129 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.7% vs league)
+5.8
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.8% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.9
Off 3P Luck
Made 9 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-1.5
Off 2P Luck
Made 14 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.3% vs league)
+0.9
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+49

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +49, Pistons are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available