Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+8
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pistons are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 0.7 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 0.7
109
Points For
107
Points Against
0.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 19 · 2025-11-29 · vs Magic · at home
112-109
Lost at home against Magic

Lost 109-112 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 51% to 44% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

50.6%
Team eFG%
43.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-11-29 · vs Magic · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 109-112 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 51% to 44% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 109-112 | eFG%: 50.6-43.8
Gm31 · 2025-12-27 · vs Jazz · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 129-131 to Utah Jazz as they shot 59% eFG and hit 18/38 from three, well above their 54% season average. Got shot out of the building.
Score: 129-131 | eFG%: 62-58.9
Gm34 · 2026-01-02 · vs Heat · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 112-118. Shot 53% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 112-118 | eFG%: 53.1-50.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Wizards · Home+0.9 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 137-135 despite being outshot 47% to 61% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 137-135 | eFG%: 46.9-60.5
Gm58 · 2026-02-28 · vs Cavaliers · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Cleveland Cavaliers 122-119 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 122-119 | eFG%: 49-52.7
Gm45 · 2026-01-28 · vs Nuggets · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Denver Nuggets 109-107 as they shot 54% eFG (-4.2 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-107 | eFG%: 50-53.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
100% win rate in 1 close games (+2.0 avg margin)
+3.5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 44 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (1 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+1.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 129 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.7% vs league)
+0.8
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.8% FT vs league average — 12 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.3
Off 3P Luck
Made 9 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-0.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 14 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.3% vs league)
+0.1
Total CLS+8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pistons are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available