Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-3
Luck Index Score

Detroit Pistons are getting roughly what they deserve. 56 points vs 55.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

56
Wins
Expected: 55.8
9046
Points For
Expected: 55.8
8440
Points Against
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 72 · 2026-03-25 · vs Atlanta Hawks · at home
129-130
Lost at home against Atlanta Hawks

One of those games where nothing went right. Detroit Pistons created 129 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 129 goals on an average day. They scored 129. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Detroit Pistons. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

129
xG Created
130
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-25 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 129-130 to Atlanta Hawks. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 129-130 | xG: 129-130
MW1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Chicago Bulls 111-115.
Score: 111-115 | xG: 111-115
MW18 · 2025-11-26 · vs Boston Celtics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 114-117 to Boston Celtics. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 114-117 | xG: 114-117

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW41 · 2026-01-20 · vs Boston Celtics · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Boston Celtics 104-103. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 104-103 | xG: 104-103
MW21 · 2025-12-02 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Atlanta Hawks 99-98. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 99-98 | xG: 99-98
MW71 · 2026-03-23 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Los Angeles Lakers 113-110. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 113-110 | xG: 113-110

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
+2
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+2
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.2% below expected from shot locations (54.4% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
-2
Total Luck Index-3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
29W-48L
+28Lucky
#22 in league
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
18W-59L
-30Unlucky
#28 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Detroit Pistons are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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