Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-3
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pacers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 25.9 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 25.9
0
Points For
0
Points Against
25.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Raptors · away
97-95
Lost away against Raptors

Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

51.9%
Team eFG%
41.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Raptors · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 95-97 | eFG%: 51.9-41.7
Gm35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Spurs · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 113-123 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 113-123 | eFG%: 58.1-51.5
Gm50 · 2026-02-03 · vs Rockets · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-118 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-118 | eFG%: 56.3-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm48 · 2026-01-29 · vs Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 113-110 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 113-110 | eFG%: 53.5-54.5
Gm42 · 2026-01-17 · vs Pelicans · Home+0.5 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 127-119 on hot shooting (59% eFG, +5.5 above season average).
Score: 127-119 | eFG%: 58.9-57.9
Gm20 · 2025-11-30 · vs Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 103-101 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 103-101 | eFG%: 53.4-52.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
26 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-0.9
Off 2P Luck
Made 72 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-0.7
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 91 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.0% vs league)
-0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.3% FT vs league average — 20 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 12 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.4
Off 3P Luck
Made 12 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-0.3
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pacers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available