Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-40
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pacers have been systematically robbed. 19 wins from 25.9 expected — a 6.9-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 63 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-19.0 CLS impact). 7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

19
Wins
Expected: 25.9
9219
Points For
9874
Points Against
6.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Raptors · away
97-95
Lost away against Raptors

Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

51.9%
Team eFG%
41.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Raptors · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 95-97 | eFG%: 51.9-41.7
Gm35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Spurs · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 113-123 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 113-123 | eFG%: 58.1-51.5
Gm50 · 2026-02-03 · vs Rockets · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-118 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-118 | eFG%: 56.3-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm48 · 2026-01-29 · vs Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 113-110 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 113-110 | eFG%: 53.5-54.5
Gm42 · 2026-01-17 · vs Pelicans · Home+0.5 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 127-119 on hot shooting (59% eFG, +5.5 above season average).
Score: 127-119 | eFG%: 58.9-57.9
Gm20 · 2025-11-30 · vs Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 103-101 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 103-101 | eFG%: 53.4-52.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-19
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.4
Close Game Record
25% win rate in 4 close games (-2.0 avg margin)
-7.3
Off 2P Luck
Made 72 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-3.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 91 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.0% vs league)
-3.1
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.3% FT vs league average — 20 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 12 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+2.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 12 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.6% vs league)
-1.5
Total CLS-40

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pacers are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available