Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-58
CLS Score

Indiana Pacers have been systematically robbed. 19 wins from 25.9 expected — a 6.9-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 63 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

19
Wins
Expected: 25.9
9219
Points For
9874
Points Against
6.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Toronto Raptors · away
95-97
Lost away against Toronto Raptors

Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

51.9%
Team eFG%
41.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW18 · 2025-11-27 · vs Toronto Raptors · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 95-97 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 95-97 | eFG%: 51.9-41.7
MW35 · 2026-01-03 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 113-123 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 113-123 | eFG%: 58.1-51.5
MW50 · 2026-02-03 · vs Houston Rockets · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-118 to Houston Rockets despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-118 | eFG%: 56.3-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW48 · 2026-01-29 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 113-110 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 113-110 | eFG%: 53.5-54.5
MW42 · 2026-01-17 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.5 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 127-119 on hot shooting (59% eFG, +5.5 above season average).
Score: 127-119 | eFG%: 58.9-57.9
MW20 · 2025-11-30 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 103-101 in a 2-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 103-101 | eFG%: 53.4-52.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-49.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (281 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-8.1
Total CLS-58

Rank Per Signal

Where Indiana Pacers ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-49.9
3
Injury Burden
1
30
-8.1

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

Indiana Pacers have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
9-32
0.2% win rate
Second Half
10-31
0.2% win rate
Win rate decline
-0pp
Close game collapse
-0pp
Point differential decline
0.5pts/game
Late losing streaks
1 losing streak
Roster turnover (2H)
15%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Indiana Pacers are deeply cursed at -58. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available