Elche Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+18

Luck Index Score

Elche are getting roughly what they deserve. 29 points vs 32.37 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 32.37

Goals Scored

xG: 34.13

Goals Conceded

xGA: 52.79

3.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Espanyol · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Espanyol

A draw that felt like a loss. Elche generated 1.9 xG, comfortably more than the 0.73 their opponent managed. Espanyol generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Elche. They got 1. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

7'A. Moleiro scores for Villarreal (assist: G. Mikautadze)

13'G. Mikautadze scores for Villarreal (assist: N. Pepe)

30'M. Neto scores for Elche (assist: A. Febas)

83'A. Pedraza scores for Villarreal (assist: S. Cardona)

1.9

xG Created

0.73

Opp. xG

-1.2

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · Home-1.2 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.31-1.52

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.2 pts

Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.73

MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Villarreal · Away-1.1 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.22-1.58

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Levante · Home+1.6 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.01

MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Mallorca · Home+1.5 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.6-1.37

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.55-1.09

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 34.1 xG - clinical finishing

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 52.8 xGA opponents generated

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (83 player-games missed) - squad depth available

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-4

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Total Luck Index+18

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Elche are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-11

Valencia

Bet

04-22

Atletico Madrid

Bet

04-25

Oviedo

Bet

05-03

Celta Vigo

Bet

05-10

Alaves

Bet

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