Elche

Elche CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+23
CLS Score

Elche have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

32
Points
Expected: 32.71
39
Goals Scored
xG: 34.72
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 55.33
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Villarreal

One of those games where nothing went right. Elche generated 1.31 xG, comfortably more than the 1.52 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Elche. They got 0. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
7'A. Moleiro scores for Villarreal (assist: G. Mikautadze)
13'G. Mikautadze scores for Villarreal (assist: N. Pepe)
30'M. Neto scores for Elche (assist: A. Febas)
83'A. Pedraza scores for Villarreal (assist: S. Cardona)
1.31
xG Created
1.52
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.31-1.52
MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.73
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Villarreal · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.22-1.58

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-11 · vs Valencia · Home+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.59-2.54
MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Levante · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.01
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Mallorca · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.6-1.37

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 55.3 xGA opponents generated
+9.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 34.7 xG - clinical finishing
+7.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (96 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.1
xPTS Gap
0.7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS+23

Rank Per Signal

Where Elche ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

8
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-2.1
9
Discipline
1
20
-0.4
12
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1.2
15
Schedule Strength
1
20
+3.9
16
Injury Burden
1
20
+5.7
17
Finishing Luck
1
20
+7.7
19
Defensive Luck
1
20
+9.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Elche are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
04-22
H
Atletico Madrid
Bet
04-26
A
Oviedo
Bet
05-03
A
Celta Vigo
Bet
05-09
H
Alaves
Bet
05-12
A
Real Betis
Bet