Elche

Elche CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+31
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Elche have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+9.9 CLS impact). Scored 6 more goals than their 42.1 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 40.94
48
Goals Scored
xG: 42.06
56
Goals Conceded
xGA: 62.34
1.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Celta Vigo · away
1-3
Lost away against Celta Vigo

One of those games where nothing went right. Elche generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 1.05 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Elche. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'H. Alvarez scores for Celta Vigo (assist: J. Rueda)
30'I. Aspas scores for Celta Vigo (assist: F. Jutgla)
82'Andre Silva scores for Elche
85'B. Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo (assist: W. Swedberg)
1.71
xG Created
1.05
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Celta Vigo · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.71-1.05
MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.31-1.52
MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.73

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-11 · vs Valencia · Home+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.59-2.54
MW33 · 2026-04-26 · vs Oviedo · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.4-0.99
MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Levante · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 42.1 xG - clinical finishing
+9.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (106 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 62.3 xGA opponents generated
+7.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.1
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+31

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Elche are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Girona
Bet