Season

Elche CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-5

CLS Score

8th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Elche are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 8.08 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 8.08

Goals Scored

xG: 8.66

Goals Conceded

xGA: 14.07

3.1

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-07 · vs Real Sociedad · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Real Sociedad

A defeat that defied the run of play. Elche created 2.47 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Real Sociedad generated just 0.58 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Elche. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

11'J. Ochieng scores for Real Sociedad (assist: C. Soler)

31'Y. Herrera scores for Real Sociedad (assist: J. Ochieng)

64'Jon Martin (Real Sociedad) - Red Card

67'T. Lemar scores for Elche (assist: V. Chust)

74'F. Nino scores for Elche (assist: Tete Morente)

90'L. Sucic scores for Real Sociedad (assist: J. Ochieng)

2.47

xG Created

0.58

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-07 · vs Real Sociedad · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.47-0.58

MW1 · 2026-08-17 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Away-1.1 pts

Drew 1-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.23-0.34

MW3 · 2026-08-28 · vs Racing Santander · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 2-3 away. xG: 1.0-1.7.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.03-1.72

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-09-18 · vs Espanyol · Away+1.2 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.61-1.05

MW5 · 2026-09-12 · vs Athletic Club · Away+0.5 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.8-2.4.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.84-2.39

MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Barcelona · Home+-0.1 pts

Lost 0-5 home. xG: 0.7-4.4.

Score: 0-5 | xG: 0.7-4.38

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-5.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (13 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 8.7 xG - clinical finishing

+3.6

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 more goals than the 14.1 xGA opponents generated

-2.8

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.9

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-0.8

Total CLS-5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Elche are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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