Genoa Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

Luck Index Score

Genoa are getting roughly what they deserve. 33 points vs 41.91 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 41.91

Goals Scored

xG: 38.94

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.03

8.9

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 7 · 2025-10-19 · vs Parma · at home

0-0

Drew at home against Parma

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Genoa created 2.2 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Parma generated just 0.05 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Genoa. They got 1. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

4'M. Cancellieri scores for Lazio (assist: T. Castellanos)

30'T. Castellanos scores for Lazio (assist: A. Marusic)

63'M. Zaccagni scores for Lazio

2.2

xG Created

0.05

Opp. xG

-1.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-29 · vs Lazio · Home-1.8 pts

Lost 0-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.63-1.07

MW7 · 2025-10-19 · vs Parma · Home-1.7 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.2-0.05

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Torino · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.9-1.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.75-2.28

MW20 · 2026-01-12 · vs Cagliari · Home+1.8 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.08-1.26

MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs Bologna · Home+1.7 pts

Won 3-2 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.54-0.55

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+17.9

xPTS Gap

9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-17.5

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (72 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+13.6

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 more goals than the 39.0 xGA opponents generated

-7.9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+6.6

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 38.9 xG - wasting chances

-4.4

Total Luck Index+3

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Genoa are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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