Genoa

Genoa CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+12
CLS Score

Genoa are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 44.98 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 44.98
40
Goals Scored
xG: 41.82
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.43
6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-29 · vs Lazio · at home
0-3
Lost at home against Lazio

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Genoa generated 1.63 xG, comfortably more than the 1.07 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Genoa. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'M. Cancellieri scores for Lazio (assist: T. Castellanos)
30'T. Castellanos scores for Lazio (assist: A. Marusic)
63'M. Zaccagni scores for Lazio
1.63
xG Created
1.07
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-29 · vs Lazio · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.63-1.07
MW7 · 2025-10-19 · vs Parma · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.2-0.05
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Torino · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.9-1.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.75-2.28
MW20 · 2026-01-12 · vs Cagliari · Home+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.08-1.26
MW22 · 2026-01-25 · vs Bologna · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.54-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+16.2
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (86 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+9.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 41.4 xGA opponents generated
-6.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 41.8 xG - wasting chances
-1.1
Total CLS+12

Rank Per Signal

Where Genoa ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

4
xPTS Gap
1
20
-9.5
4
Defensive Luck
1
20
-6.2
6
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-2.3
11
Finishing Luck
1
20
-1.1
18
Injury Burden
1
20
+9.2
19
Schedule Strength
1
20
+16.2
20
Discipline
1
20
+5.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Genoa are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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