Getafe

Getafe CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+1
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Getafe are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 42.59 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 42.59
31
Goals Scored
xG: 29.62
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.87
5.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Rayo Vallecano · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Rayo Vallecano

One of those games where nothing went right. Getafe generated 1.38 xG, comfortably more than the 0.83 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Getafe. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
38'S. Camello scores for Rayo Vallecano
73'R. Nteka scores for Rayo Vallecano (assist: G. Gumbau)
1.38
xG Created
0.83
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-03 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.38-0.83
MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.43
MW25 · 2026-02-22 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.32-0.32

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-22 · vs Real Sociedad · Away+2.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.12-1.89
MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.49-1.91
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Betis · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1.11

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-22.9
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (126 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 40.9 xGA opponents generated
+4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 29.6 xG - clinical finishing
+3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Total CLS+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Getafe are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Osasuna
Bet