Getafe

Getafe CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+7
CLS Score

Getafe are getting roughly what they deserve. 41 points vs 35.14 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

41
Points
Expected: 35.14
27
Goals Scored
xG: 24.44
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.66
5.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · away
1-2
Lost away against Osasuna

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Getafe. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
23'B. Mayoral scores for Getafe (assist: L. Milla)
45'A. Bretones scores for Osasuna (assist: V. Munoz)
90'A. Catena scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Garcia)
0.82
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.43
MW25 · 2026-02-22 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.32-0.32
MW28 · 2026-03-14 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.49-1.91
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Betis · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1.11
MW11 · 2025-10-31 · vs Girona · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.43

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10.3
xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+9.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 24.4 xG - clinical finishing
+4.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (109 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 34.7 xGA opponents generated
+2.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Total CLS+7

Rank Per Signal

Where Getafe ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Discipline
1
20
-3.5
2
Schedule Strength
1
20
-10.3
12
Finishing Luck
1
20
+4.7
12
Defensive Luck
1
20
+2.3
13
Injury Burden
1
20
+3.2
14
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+1.2
16
xPTS Gap
1
20
+9.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Getafe are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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