Getafe

Getafe Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+7

Luck Index Score

Getafe have had fortune smiling on them. 5.31 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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38

Points

Expected: 32.69

25

Goals Scored

xG: 22.21

31

Goals Conceded

xGA: 31.19

5.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · away

1-2

Lost away against Osasuna

One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Getafe. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

23'B. Mayoral scores for Getafe (assist: L. Milla)

45'A. Bretones scores for Osasuna (assist: V. Munoz)

90'A. Catena scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Garcia)

0.82

xG Created

0.43

Opp. xG

-1.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.43

MW25 · 2026-02-22 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.2 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.32-0.32

MW28 · 2026-03-14 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.5 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.49-1.91

MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Betis · Home+2.3 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1.11

MW11 · 2025-10-31 · vs Girona · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.43

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+11

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-10

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 22.2 xG - clinical finishing

+7

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (104 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0 more goals than the 31.2 xGA opponents generated

-1

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+1

Total Luck Index+8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Getafe are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-05

H

Athletic Club

04-13

A

Levante

04-22

A

Real Sociedad

04-25

H

Barcelona

05-03

H

Rayo Vallecano

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