Twins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
-6
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Twins are getting what their run differential deserves. 23 wins vs 24.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
23
Wins
Expected: 24.9
230
Runs Scored
231
Runs Allowed
1.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · away
8-6
Lost away against Orioles
Lost 6-8 to Orioles (12-12 H). Orioles were the better team on the day.
6
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Orioles (12-12 H). Orioles were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Reds · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Reds. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 4-5
Gm25 · 2026-04-23 · vs Mets · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 8-10 to Mets (12-10 H). Mets were the better team on the day.
Score: 8-10
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm47 · 2026-05-17 · vs Brewers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Brewers despite being outhit 10-6. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4
Gm41 · 2026-05-10 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Guardians. Guardians left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Gm35 · 2026-05-03 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Blue Jays. Blue Jays left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.319 vs xwOBA 0.312 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+7.3
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-6.4
One-Run Game Record
4-7 in one-run games (36% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.50 vs xERA 4.46 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.2
Total CLS-6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Twins are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 19th in the league - a favorable stretch.