Twins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-14
CLS Score
Twins are getting what their run differential deserves. 11 wins vs 12.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
11
Wins
Expected: 12.1
112
Runs Scored
100
Runs Allowed
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · away
6-8
Lost away against Orioles
Lost to Orioles 6-8.
6
Runs
8
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Orioles 6-8.
Score: 6-8
MW21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Reds · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Reds. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW5 · 2026-04-01 · vs Royals · Away-0.3 pts
Lost to Royals 9-13.
Score: 9-13
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 8-6.
Score: 8-6
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.3 pts
Beat Blue Jays 7-4.
Score: 7-4
MW17 · 2026-04-13 · vs Red Sox · Home+0.2 pts
Blew out Red Sox 13-6. A dominant performance.
Score: 13-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
Not enough one-run games yet (0-3)
-6.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.09 vs xERA 4.07 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.327 vs xwOBA 0.332 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.1
Total CLS-14
Rank Per Signal
Where Twins ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
2-6.9
One-Run Game Record
1
30
7-5.5
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
7-1
Pitching Luck
1
30
10-0.7
Injury Burden
1
30
14+0.1
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Twins are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 23th in the league - a favorable stretch.