Twins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
-5
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Twins are getting what their run differential deserves. 43 wins vs 43 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
43
Wins
Expected: 43
442
Runs Scored
464
Runs Allowed
0
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Pirates · away
10-9
Lost away against Pirates
Lost 9-10 to Pirates (12-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
9
Runs
10
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Pirates · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Pirates (12-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Orioles (12-12 H). Orioles were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Reds · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Reds. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm86 · 2026-06-29 · vs Astros · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Astros (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm83 · 2026-06-26 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 in 10 innings against Rockies (14-11 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 9-8
Gm73 · 2026-06-14 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Cardinals (13-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.67 vs xERA 4.35 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-11.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.316 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+10
One-Run Game Record
10-13 in one-run games (43% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.7
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
+0.3
Total CLS-5
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Twins are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 13th).