Twins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 123 games played · View MLB standings →
+6
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Twins are getting what their run differential deserves. 60 wins vs 57.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
60
Wins
Expected: 57.9
572
Runs Scored
610
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Pirates · away
10-9
Lost away against Pirates
Lost 9-10 to Pirates (12-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
9
Runs
10
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Pirates · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Pirates (12-15 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 9-10
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Orioles · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Orioles (12-12 H). Orioles were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Reds · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Reds. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm122 · 2026-08-12 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Orioles 7-5 (14-7 H). Dominated with the bat (14 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 7-5
Gm117 · 2026-08-07 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brewers 8-6 (13-9 H). Dominated with the bat (13 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 8-6
Gm116 · 2026-08-06 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Royals (7-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.312 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+10.2
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+8.3
One-Run Game Record
14-19 in one-run games (42% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-8.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.45 vs xERA 4.27 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-7.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.4
Total CLS+6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|39 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Twins are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run.