Arsenal

Arsenal CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+23
CLS Score

Arsenal have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

70
Points
Expected: 65.27
63
Goals Scored
xG: 56.61
26
Goals Conceded
xGA: 24.84
4.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bournemouth · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bournemouth

A defeat that defied the run of play. Arsenal created 2.41 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Bournemouth generated just 1.2 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Arsenal. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'E. J. Kroupi scores for Bournemouth
35'V. Gyokeres scores for Arsenal
74'A. Scott scores for Bournemouth (assist: Evanilson)
2.41
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bournemouth · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.41-1.2
MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Manchester United · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.19-0.71
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.1-0.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-03-04 · vs Brighton · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.47-0.82
MW20 · 2026-01-03 · vs Bournemouth · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.13-1.43
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Manchester United · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.31-1.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 56.6 xG - clinical finishing
+11.3
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+8.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (123 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 24.8 xGA opponents generated
-2.3
Total CLS+23

Rank Per Signal

Where Arsenal ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Schedule Strength
1
20
-7.9
9
Defensive Luck
1
20
-2.3
13
Injury Burden
1
20
+3.7
15
xPTS Gap
1
20
+8.7
18
Finishing Luck
1
20
+11.3
18
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+6.2
18
Discipline
1
20
+3.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Arsenal are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 15th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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