Arsenal

Arsenal CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+8
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Arsenal are getting roughly what they deserve. 12 points vs 8.99 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

12
Points
Expected: 8.99
8
Goals Scored
xG: 4.97
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 0.92
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Brighton · away
0-3
Lost away against Brighton

One of those games where nothing went right. Brighton created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Arsenal. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
31'P. Gross scores for Brighton (assist: C. Kostoulas)
45'C. Kostoulas scores for Brighton (assist: D. Gomez)
57'C. Andres scores for Brighton (assist: P. Gross)
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Brighton · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Coventry · Home+0.5 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 1.9-0.2.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.88-0.2
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Chelsea · Home+0.5 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.0-0.4.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.05-0.39

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Sunderland · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0-0
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs Aston Villa · Away+1.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.04-0.33
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Chelsea · Home+0.5 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.0-0.4.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.05-0.39

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 5.0 xG - wasting chances
-0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 0.9 xGA opponents generated
+0.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (25 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.4
Total CLS+8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Arsenal are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

Next Matches
10-10
H
Leeds
Bet
10-18
A
Nottingham Forest
Bet
10-24
H
Everton
Bet
11-01
A
Liverpool
Bet
11-07
H
Hull City
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
2
of 20
No change from current 2
Projected Points
79
from 12 now (+67 remaining)
Pace
1.80
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Arsenal's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Ødegaard MID£6.819.9%21.1+0.9Finishing in line with xG
Saka MID£9.614.4%33.2-0.2Finishing in line with xG
Tzolis MID£6.311.6%00.2-0.2Finishing in line with xG
Rice MID£7.411.4%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Havertz FWD£7.68.0%21.7+0.3Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).