Arsenal

Arsenal Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+40
Luck Index Score

Arsenal have been living on borrowed time. 70 points from 61.72 expected? They're 8.28 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

70
Points
Expected: 61.72
61
Goals Scored
xG: 52.67
22
Goals Conceded
xGA: 22.23
8.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 27 · 2026-02-18 · vs Wolves · away
2-2
Drew away against Wolves

A draw that felt like a loss. Arsenal generated 1.6 xG, comfortably more than the 0.29 their opponent managed. Wolves created almost nothing - just 0.29 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Arsenal. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'L. Martinez scores for Arsenal
37'B. Mbeumo scores for Manchester United
50'P. Dorgu scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
84'M. Merino scores for Arsenal
87'M. Cunha scores for Manchester United (assist: K. Mainoo)
1.6
xG Created
0.29
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Manchester United · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.19-0.71
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.1-0.34
MW11 · 2025-11-08 · vs Sunderland · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.91-0.44

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-03-04 · vs Brighton · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.47-0.82
MW20 · 2026-01-03 · vs Bournemouth · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.13-1.43
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Manchester United · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.31-1.52

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+16
Finishing Luck
Scored 8 more goals than their 52.7 xG - clinical finishing
+16
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 22.2 xGA opponents generated
0
Total Luck Index+41

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Tottenham
Tottenham
7W-9D-15L
-23Unlucky
#17 in league
Chelsea
Chelsea
13W-9D-9L
-29Unlucky
#6 in league
Manchester United
Manchester United
15W-10D-6L
+28Lucky
#3 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Arsenal are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches
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