Arsenal

Arsenal CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+37
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Arsenal have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+15.1 CLS impact). 9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

82
Points
Expected: 72.52
69
Goals Scored
xG: 62.61
26
Goals Conceded
xGA: 27.69
9.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bournemouth · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bournemouth

A defeat that defied the run of play. Arsenal created 2.41 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Bournemouth generated just 1.2 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Arsenal. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'E. J. Kroupi scores for Bournemouth
35'V. Gyokeres scores for Arsenal
74'A. Scott scores for Bournemouth (assist: Evanilson)
2.41
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bournemouth · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.41-1.2
MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Manchester United · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.19-0.71
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.1-0.34

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW30 · 2026-03-04 · vs Brighton · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.47-0.82
MW34 · 2026-04-25 · vs Newcastle · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.64-0.91
MW20 · 2026-01-03 · vs Bournemouth · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.13-1.43

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 62.6 xG - clinical finishing
+9.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+8.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (135 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 27.7 xGA opponents generated
+1.6
Total CLS+37

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Arsenal are riding their luck at +37. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Crystal Palace
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
1
of 20
No change from current 1
Projected Points
84
from 82 now (+2 remaining)
Pace
1.96
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Arsenal has scored 6 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Rice MID£7.224.1%43.1+0.9Finishing in line with xG
Gyökeres FWD£9.117.7%1412.1+1.9Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Saka MID£10.013.0%77.6-0.6Finishing in line with xG
Eze MID£7.38.9%74.8+2.2Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Zubimendi MID£4.92.8%52.8+2.2Overperforming xG — sell candidate

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).