Marlins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+6
CLS Score
Marlins are getting what their run differential deserves. 11 wins vs 11.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
11
Wins
Expected: 11.6
105
Runs Scored
104
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · away
7-9
Lost away against Yankees
Lost to Yankees 7-9.
7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Yankees 7-9.
Score: 7-9
MW18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Fell to Brewers 5-7 in 10 innings. Couldn't close it out in extras.
Score: 5-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Yankees · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Yankees 7-6. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 7-6
MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Rockies 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rockies · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Rockies 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
4-1 in one-run games (80% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+5.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.323 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+3.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.96 vs xERA 3.70 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-2.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2
Total CLS+6
Rank Per Signal
Where Marlins ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
5-2.1
Pitching Luck
1
30
11-3.2
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
27+5.7
One-Run Game Record
1
30
27+2
Injury Burden
1
30
29+3.6
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Marlins are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch.