Marlins

Marlins CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

+11
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Marlins are getting what their run differential deserves. 80 wins vs 81.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

80
Wins
Expected: 81.3
715
Runs Scored
712
Runs Allowed
1.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 147 · 2026-09-09 · vs Mets · at home
15-14
Lost at home against Mets

Lost 14-15 to Mets despite outhitting them 20-15. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.

14
Runs
15
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm147 · 2026-09-09 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 14-15 to Mets despite outhitting them 20-15. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 14-15
Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
Score: 7-9
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves (9-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm153 · 2026-09-16 · vs D-backs · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against D-backs (10-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm149 · 2026-09-12 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Dodgers (7-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm109 · 2026-07-29 · vs Phillies · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Phillies 8-6 (8-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.322 vs xwOBA 0.311 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14.6
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.97 vs xERA 4.07 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+2.3
One-Run Game Record
20-20 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.2
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marlins are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available