Marlins

Marlins CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 102 games played · View MLB standings →

+25
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Marlins have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+17.6 CLS impact). wOBA 0.323 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 52.5
455
Runs Scored
441
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · away
9-7
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.

7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
Score: 7-9
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves (9-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to Brewers. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm92 · 2026-07-07 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Mariners (11-8 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 6-5
Gm91 · 2026-07-05 · vs Athletics · Away+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 against Athletics (16-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 9-8
Gm76 · 2026-06-19 · vs Giants · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants (10-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.323 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+17.6
One-Run Game Record
14-11 in one-run games (56% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.87 vs xERA 4.02 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+2.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.4
Total CLS+25

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|60 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marlins are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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