Marlins CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+9
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Marlins are getting what their run differential deserves. 22 wins vs 23.7 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
22
Wins
Expected: 23.7
218
Runs Scored
231
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · away
9-7
Lost away against Yankees
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
Score: 7-9
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves (9-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to Brewers. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 5-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Nationals. 2 Nationals errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 8-7
Gm38 · 2026-05-07 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Orioles (6-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Yankees · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Yankees. Yankees left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+10.1
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.5
One-Run Game Record
8-5 in one-run games (62% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.83 vs xERA 3.85 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1.1
Total CLS+9
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Marlins are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 18th in the league - a favorable stretch.