Marlins

Marlins CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 130 games played · View MLB standings →

+27
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Marlins have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+15.4 CLS impact). wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

66
Wins
Expected: 66.8
567
Runs Scored
550
Runs Allowed
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · away
9-7
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.

7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
Score: 7-9
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves (9-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to Brewers. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm109 · 2026-07-29 · vs Phillies · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Phillies 8-6 (8-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm107 · 2026-07-27 · vs Phillies · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Phillies. 2 Phillies errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 8-7
Gm92 · 2026-07-07 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Mariners (11-8 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.321 vs xwOBA 0.310 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+15.4
One-Run Game Record
17-14 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.80 vs xERA 3.95 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.4
Total CLS+27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marlins are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
08-23
H
Nationals
Bet
08-24
H
Red Sox
Bet
08-25
H
Red Sox
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08-26
H
Red Sox
Bet
08-28
A
Nationals
Bet