Marlins

Marlins CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →

+27
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Marlins have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+14.1 CLS impact). wOBA 0.322 vs xwOBA 0.309 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

48
Wins
Expected: 47.4
409
Runs Scored
386
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · away
9-7
Lost away against Yankees

Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.

7
Runs
9
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Yankees · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Yankees despite outhitting them 15-6. Hits didn't translate to runs.
Score: 7-9
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Braves · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Braves (9-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm20 · 2026-04-17 · vs Brewers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-7 to Brewers. 2 errors turned a competitive game into a loss.
Score: 5-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm76 · 2026-06-19 · vs Giants · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants (10-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Rays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Rays (10-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm40 · 2026-05-09 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Nationals. 2 Nationals errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.322 vs xwOBA 0.309 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14.1
One-Run Game Record
12-9 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+5.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.92 vs xERA 4.05 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.3
Total CLS+27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|72 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marlins are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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