Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-5
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Bucks are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 32 wins vs 33.3 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

32
Wins
Expected: 33.3
9072
Points For
9581
Points Against
1.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Kings · at home
135-133
Lost at home against Kings

Lost 133-135 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 69% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

68.9%
Team eFG%
57.5%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Kings · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 133-135 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 69% to 57% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 133-135 | eFG%: 68.9-57.5
Gm20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Knicks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 109-118 to New York Knicks despite winning the efficiency battle 65% to 54% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 109-118 | eFG%: 64.8-53.6
Gm3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Cavaliers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 113-118 to Cleveland Cavaliers despite winning the efficiency battle 59% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 113-118 | eFG%: 58.9-51.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm9 · 2025-11-08 · vs Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Dominated Chicago Bulls 126-110. Won on efficiency (54% vs 54% eFG).
Score: 126-110 | eFG%: 54.4-54.4
Gm67 · 2026-03-15 · vs Pacers · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 134-123 on hot shooting (67% eFG, +10.6 above season average) including 23/44 from three.
Score: 134-123 | eFG%: 67.2-64.8
Gm52 · 2026-02-12 · vs Magic · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Orlando Magic 116-108. Shot 57% eFG vs their 55%.
Score: 116-108 | eFG%: 56.8-54.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 87 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (38.7% vs league)
+10.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.3
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 50 more threes than league-avg would predict (37.5% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-8.6
Close Game Record
100% win rate in 2 close games (+2.5 avg margin)
+6.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-3.3
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.5% FT vs league average — 5 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.6
Off 2P Luck
Made 11 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.3% vs league)
+0.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 15 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.5
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Bucks are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available