Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago Blackhawks Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-4
Luck Index Score

Chicago Blackhawks are getting roughly what they deserve. 68 points vs 65.1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

68
Points
Expected: 65.1
196
Goals For
Expected: 65.1
251
Goals Against
2.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2025-11-28 · vs Nashville Predators · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Nashville Predators

One of those games where nothing went right. Chicago Blackhawks created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Chicago Blackhawks. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2025-11-28 · vs Nashville Predators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW1 · 2025-10-07 · vs Florida Panthers · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3
MW3 · 2025-10-11 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Montréal Canadiens. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW71 · 2026-03-24 · vs New York Islanders · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW50 · 2026-01-22 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Carolina Hurricanes 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW40 · 2026-01-01 · vs Dallas Stars · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Dallas Stars 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more points than their goal differential predicts
+17
Close Games
13-21 in one-goal games (38% win rate vs expected 50%)
-17
Shootout Record
3-5 in shootouts (net -2)
-7
OT Loss Rate
14 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+3
Total Luck Index-4

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings
40W-27L-8OTL
+34Lucky
#14 in league
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues
32W-31L-12OTL
+10Neutral
#27 in league
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
42W-21L-12OTL
+16Lucky
#7 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chicago Blackhawks are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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