Nashville Predators Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+33

Luck Index Score

Nashville Predators are getting roughly what they deserve. 79 points vs 75.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 75.9

225

Goals For

Expected: 75.9

250

Goals Against

3.1

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 17 · 2025-11-08 · vs Dallas Stars · at home

4-5

Lost at home against Dallas Stars

One of those games where nothing went right. Nashville Predators created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Nashville Predators. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-11-08 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 4-5 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

MW10 · 2025-10-26 · vs Dallas Stars · Home-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

MW37 · 2025-12-27 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW75 · 2026-04-02 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Los Angeles Kings 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

MW67 · 2026-03-17 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW55 · 2026-02-02 · vs St. Louis Blues · Home+0.9 pts

Edged St. Louis Blues 6-5. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

3 more points than their goal differential predicts

+16

Shootout Record

5-1 in shootouts (net +4)

+12

Close Games

19-15 in one-goal games (56% win rate vs expected 50%)

OT Loss Rate

9 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

-3

Total Luck Index+32

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Nashville Predators are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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