Nationals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+12
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Nationals are getting what their run differential deserves. 25 wins vs 23.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
25
Wins
Expected: 23.8
279
Runs Scored
294
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · away
6-5
Lost away against Phillies
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 5-6
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Dodgers (7-11 H). Dodgers were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
Gm11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 in 10 innings to Cardinals. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm43 · 2026-05-13 · vs Reds · Away+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 in 10 innings against Reds (10-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 8-7
Gm38 · 2026-05-07 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 7-5 (8-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm32 · 2026-04-30 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Mets (7-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.92 vs xERA 5.24 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+3.7
One-Run Game Record
8-6 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.329 vs xwOBA 0.330 - hard contact not converting into hits
+1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.5
Total CLS+12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Nationals are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run.