Nationals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
+8
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Nationals are getting what their run differential deserves. 46 wins vs 46.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
46
Wins
Expected: 46.3
480
Runs Scored
465
Runs Allowed
0.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · away
11-10
Lost away against Giants
Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 5-6
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Dodgers (7-11 H). Dodgers were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm84 · 2026-06-27 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Orioles. 2 Orioles errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 4-3
Gm77 · 2026-06-20 · vs Rays · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Rays. Rays left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm67 · 2026-06-08 · vs Giants · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants despite being outhit 13-8. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.68 vs xERA 4.99 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.329 vs xwOBA 0.329 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.8
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.7
One-Run Game Record
12-12 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
+0.1
Total CLS+8
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Nationals are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).