Nationals Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
0
Luck Index Score
Nationals are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 2.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 2.8
31
Runs Scored
Expected: 2.8
19
Runs Allowed
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
0
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.344 vs xwOBA 0.325 - batters outperforming their contact quality
0
Pitching Luck
ERA 6.68 vs xERA 7.31 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
0
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
0
Total Luck Index0
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Nationals are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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