Nationals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-4
CLS Score
Nationals are getting what their run differential deserves. 10 wins vs 10.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
10
Wins
Expected: 10.1
125
Runs Scored
143
Runs Allowed
0.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · away
5-6
Lost away against Phillies
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Dodgers 6-8.
Score: 6-8
MW11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Cardinals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 in 10 innings to Cardinals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Pirates 8-7 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 8-7
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Pirates 5-4. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
MW15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brewers 8-6.
Score: 8-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
2-4 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.327 vs xwOBA 0.328 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.7
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.51 vs xERA 5.72 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.1
Total CLS-4
Rank Per Signal
Where Nationals ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
6-3.7
One-Run Game Record
1
30
11-0.1
Pitching Luck
1
30
13-0.3
Injury Burden
1
30
17-0.6
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
18+0.7
Batting Luck
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Nationals are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).