Nationals

Nationals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →

-40
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Nationals are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 61 wins from 66.7 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-20.8 CLS impact). 6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

61
Wins
Expected: 66.7
680
Runs Scored
666
Runs Allowed
5.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · away
11-10
Lost away against Giants

Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 5-6
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Dodgers (7-11 H). Dodgers were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm92 · 2026-07-06 · vs Astros · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 against Astros. 2 Astros errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 12-11
Gm108 · 2026-07-28 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Blue Jays 8-6. 2 Blue Jays errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 8-6
Gm84 · 2026-06-27 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Orioles. 2 Orioles errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-20.8
One-Run Game Record
13-19 in one-run games (41% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-11.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.01 vs xERA 4.88 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.324 - batters outperforming their contact quality
-0.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS-40

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nationals are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 5 opponents average 26th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.

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