Nationals

Nationals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

-27
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Nationals deserve more. 77 wins vs 81.5 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-14.1 CLS impact). 4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

77
Wins
Expected: 81.5
821
Runs Scored
815
Runs Allowed
4.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · away
11-10
Lost away against Giants

Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

10
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm69 · 2026-06-10 · vs Giants · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 10-11 to Giants (14-14 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 10-11
Gm6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 5-6
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-8 to Dodgers (7-11 H). Dodgers were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-8

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm92 · 2026-07-06 · vs Astros · Home+0.5 pts
Won 12-11 against Astros. 2 Astros errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 12-11
Gm160 · 2026-09-25 · vs Mets · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Mets (11-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm151 · 2026-09-13 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Angels (13-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-14.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.90 vs xERA 4.76 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-8.2
One-Run Game Record
18-22 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.319 vs xwOBA 0.319 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.7
Total CLS-27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Nationals are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available