Philadelphia 76ers Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+33

Luck Index Score

Philadelphia 76ers have had fortune smiling on them. 4.5 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Wins

Expected: 38.5

8974

Points For

Expected: 38.5

8973

Points Against

4.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2025-10-31 · vs Boston Celtics · at home

108-109

Lost at home against Boston Celtics

One of those games where nothing went right. Philadelphia 76ers created 108 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 108 goals on an average day. They scored 108. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Philadelphia 76ers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

108

xG Created

109

Opp. xG

-0.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-10-31 · vs Boston Celtics · Home-0.5 pts

Lost 108-109 to Boston Celtics. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 108-109 | xG: 108-109

MW34 · 2026-01-06 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home-0.5 pts

Lost 124-125 to Denver Nuggets. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 124-125 | xG: 124-125

MW37 · 2026-01-11 · vs Toronto Raptors · Away-0.5 pts

Lost 115-116 to Toronto Raptors. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 115-116 | xG: 115-116

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2025-12-05 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home+0.5 pts

Edged Golden State Warriors 99-98. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 99-98 | xG: 99-98

MW1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Boston Celtics · Away+0.5 pts

Edged Boston Celtics 117-116. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 117-116 | xG: 117-116

MW74 · 2026-03-28 · vs Charlotte Hornets · Away+0.4 pts

Beat Charlotte Hornets 118-114.

Score: 118-114 | xG: 118-114

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

5 more wins than their point differential predicts

+26

Win% Gap

Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports

+16

Shot Quality Luck

Shooting 1.4% below expected from shot locations (53.2% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)

-11

Diff Consistency

Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots

Total Luck Index+33

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Philadelphia 76ers are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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