Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia 76ers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+9
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

76ers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 45 wins vs 43.5 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Wins
Expected: 43.5
9502
Points For
9517
Points Against
1.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 37 · 2026-01-11 · vs Raptors · away
116-115
Lost away against Raptors

Lost 115-116 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 50% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

50%
Team eFG%
42.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm37 · 2026-01-11 · vs Raptors · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 115-116 to Toronto Raptors despite winning the efficiency battle 50% to 42% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 115-116 | eFG%: 50-42.2
Gm5 · 2025-10-31 · vs Celtics · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 108-109 to Boston Celtics despite winning the efficiency battle 56% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 108-109 | eFG%: 55.8-50.5
Gm44 · 2026-01-24 · vs Knicks · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 109-112 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 109-112 | eFG%: 56.5-52.2

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm50 · 2026-02-04 · vs Warriors · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Golden State Warriors 113-94 despite being outshot 52% to 60% eFG. Golden State Warriors were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 113-94 | eFG%: 52.2-59.6
Gm49 · 2026-02-03 · vs LA Clippers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from LA Clippers 128-113 despite being outshot 57% to 65% eFG. LA Clippers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-113 | eFG%: 56.9-64.7
Gm31 · 2025-12-31 · vs Grizzlies · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Memphis Grizzlies 139-136 despite being outshot 53% to 61% eFG. Memphis Grizzlies were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 139-136 | eFG%: 52.7-61.4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (1 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+8.5
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+5.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 31 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.9% vs league)
-4.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 21 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.3% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+4.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 69 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.5% vs league)
-3.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.5% FT vs league average — 5 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.7
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 1 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.0% vs league)
0
Total CLS+9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

76ers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available