Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+4
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Suns are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 45 wins vs 44.9 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

45
Wins
Expected: 44.9
9232
Points For
9112
Points Against
0.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 26 · 2025-12-15 · vs Lakers · at home
116-114
Lost at home against Lakers

Lost 114-116 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

56.7%
Team eFG%
47.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-15 · vs Lakers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 114-116 to Los Angeles Lakers despite winning the efficiency battle 57% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 114-116 | eFG%: 56.7-47.2
Gm4 · 2025-10-28 · vs Jazz · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Utah Jazz 134-138. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 134-138 | eFG%: 51.9-48.1
Gm5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Grizzlies · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 113-114 to Memphis Grizzlies in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 113-114 | eFG%: 57-55.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm57 · 2026-02-21 · vs Magic · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Orlando Magic 113-110 despite being outshot 41% to 48% eFG. Orlando Magic were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 113-110 | eFG%: 41-48
Gm12 · 2025-11-13 · vs Mavericks · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Dallas Mavericks 123-114 despite being outshot 54% to 60% eFG. Dallas Mavericks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 123-114 | eFG%: 53.7-59.9
Gm32 · 2025-12-30 · vs Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 115-101 despite being outshot 49% to 54% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 115-101 | eFG%: 49-54.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 36 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.7% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+6.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.5
Close Game Record
40% win rate in 10 close games (-0.3 avg margin)
-3.4
Off 2P Luck
Made 71 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-3.2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 24 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.6% vs league)
-0.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 6 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.1% vs league)
+0.7
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 78.5% FT vs league average — 5 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.6
Total CLS+4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Suns are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available