Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-5
Luck Index Score

Phoenix Suns are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 42.1 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

42
Wins
Expected: 42.1
8687
Points For
Expected: 42.1
8572
Points Against
0.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · at home
113-114
Lost at home against Memphis Grizzlies

One of those games where nothing went right. Phoenix Suns created 113 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 113 goals on an average day. They scored 113. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Phoenix Suns. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

113
xG Created
114
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to Memphis Grizzlies. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW70 · 2026-03-20 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 100-101 to San Antonio Spurs. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 100-101 | xG: 100-101
MW4 · 2025-10-28 · vs Utah Jazz · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Utah Jazz 134-138.
Score: 134-138 | xG: 134-138

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-12-19 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Golden State Warriors 99-98. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 99-98 | xG: 99-98
MW16 · 2025-11-22 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Minnesota Timberwolves 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113
MW63 · 2026-03-07 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.4 pts
Edged New Orleans Pelicans 118-116. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 118-116 | xG: 118-116

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.7% below expected from shot locations (53.8% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
+1
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-1
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
0
Total Luck Index-5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
50W-27L
+93Blessed
#6 in league
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
59W-18L
+29Lucky
#2 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Phoenix Suns are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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