Pirates CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 134 games played · View MLB standings →
+2
CLS Score
17th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Pirates are getting what their run differential deserves. 63 wins vs 68.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
63
Wins
Expected: 68.2
653
Runs Scored
624
Runs Allowed
5.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm99 · 2026-07-17 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm104 · 2026-07-21 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Twins · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Twins (15-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm132 · 2026-08-19 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (8-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm117 · 2026-08-03 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Brewers (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-16.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.328 vs xwOBA 0.317 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+13.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+9.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.12 vs xERA 3.93 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-7.8
One-Run Game Record
18-16 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Total CLS+2
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|28 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Pirates are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 8th in the league - a tough run.