Pirates CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+4
CLS Score
Pirates are getting what their run differential deserves. 13 wins vs 13.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
13
Wins
Expected: 13.5
113
Runs Scored
88
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · away
6-7
Lost away against Cubs
Lost 6-7 to Cubs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
6
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Cubs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-7
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Nationals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 in 10 innings to Nationals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 7-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW14 · 2026-04-11 · vs Cubs · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Cubs 4-3 in 11 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Orioles 5-4. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Mets 4-3 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-2.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 2.74 vs xERA 3.56 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.329 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.7
One-Run Game Record
4-4 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
0
Total CLS+4
Rank Per Signal
Where Pirates ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
15-2.5
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
150
One-Run Game Record
1
30
24+1.7
Batting Luck
1
30
27+2.5
Pitching Luck
1
30
28+2.3
Injury Burden
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Pirates are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).