Pirates Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
+19
Luck Index Score
Pirates are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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1
Wins
Expected: 1.3
13
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.3
20
Runs Allowed
0.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.337 vs xwOBA 0.325 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+14
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
+3
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+3
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.72 vs xERA 3.91 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+19
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Pirates are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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