Pirates CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →
-2
CLS Score
14th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Pirates are getting what their run differential deserves. 25 wins vs 26.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
25
Wins
Expected: 26.6
242
Runs Scored
220
Runs Allowed
1.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · away
7-6
Lost away against Cubs
Lost 6-7 to Cubs (7-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
6
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Cubs (7-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 6-7
Gm17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Nationals (8-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 in 10 innings to Nationals despite outhitting them 15-10. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 7-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm14 · 2026-04-11 · vs Cubs · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 11 innings against Cubs. Cubs left 16 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Gm7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Orioles (6-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Mets (7-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.329 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.92 vs xERA 4.03 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.3
One-Run Game Record
6-6 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
-0.2
Total CLS-2
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|113 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Pirates are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 16th).