Pirates CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
+2
CLS Score
16th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Pirates are getting what their run differential deserves. 45 wins vs 47.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
45
Wins
Expected: 47.5
464
Runs Scored
437
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · away
7-6
Lost away against Cubs
Lost 6-7 to Cubs (7-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
6
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Cubs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Cubs (7-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 6-7
Gm17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Nationals (8-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm19 · 2026-04-16 · vs Nationals · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 in 10 innings to Nationals despite outhitting them 15-10. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 7-8
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Twins · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Twins (15-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm78 · 2026-06-21 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 8-6 (13-8 H). Dominated with the bat (13 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 8-6
Gm74 · 2026-06-16 · vs Athletics · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Athletics (12-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-9.1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.326 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.23 vs xERA 4.11 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4
One-Run Game Record
12-10 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.2
Total CLS+2
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Pirates are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run.