Pirates

Pirates CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

+17
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Pirates have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+11.0 CLS impact). 28-21 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

82
Wins
Expected: 83.8
767
Runs Scored
739
Runs Allowed
1.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm95 · 2026-07-10 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm99 · 2026-07-17 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm104 · 2026-07-21 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm142 · 2026-09-01 · vs Giants · Home+0.5 pts
Won 13-12 against Giants. Giants left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 13-12
Gm59 · 2026-05-30 · vs Twins · Home+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Twins (15-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm159 · 2026-09-20 · vs Royals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Royals (8-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
28-21 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+11
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.317 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+10.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.01 vs xERA 3.91 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-5.8
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.2
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pirates are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available