Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-34
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Penguins can't catch a break. 98 points vs 100.5 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Close Games (-20.2 CLS impact). 12-23 in one-goal games (34% win rate vs expected 50%)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

98
Points
Expected: 100.5
293
Goals For
268
Goals Against
2.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Ducks · away
4-3
Lost away against Ducks

Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Ducks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm14 · 2025-11-03 · vs Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm17 · 2025-11-09 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm72 · 2026-03-26 · vs Senators · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Ottawa Senators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm69 · 2026-03-21 · vs Jets · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm66 · 2026-03-14 · vs Utah Mammoth · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Utah Mammoth 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
12-23 in one-goal games (34% win rate vs expected 50%)
-20.2
Shootout Record
3-10 in shootouts (net -7)
-15.5
OT Loss Rate
16 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+13.7
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-13.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.2
Total CLS-34

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -34, Penguins are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available