Pittsburgh Penguins CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 3 games played · View NHL standings →
-6
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL
Penguins are getting roughly what their play deserves. 4 points vs 5.1 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 5.1
15
Goals For
8
Goals Against
1.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-10-05 · vs Jets · at home
3-2
Lost at home against Jets
Lost 2-3 against Winnipeg Jets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
2
Goals
3
Opp. Goals
-0.8
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-10-05 · vs Jets · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Winnipeg Jets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Canadiens · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-5.2
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.2
Close Games
1-1 in one-goal games (50% win rate vs expected 50%)
0
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS-6
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|79 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Penguins are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 23th in the league - a favorable stretch.