Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-36
CLS Score

Pittsburgh Penguins can't catch a break. 98 points vs 100.5 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

98
Points
Expected: 100.5
293
Goals For
268
Goals Against
2.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · away
3-4
Lost away against Anaheim Ducks

Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

3
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW14 · 2025-11-03 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW17 · 2025-11-09 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-26 · vs Ottawa Senators · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Ottawa Senators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW69 · 2026-03-21 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4
MW66 · 2026-03-14 · vs Utah Mammoth · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Utah Mammoth 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
12-24 in one-goal games (33% win rate vs expected 50%)
-20.5
Shootout Record
3-10 in shootouts (net -7)
-14.8
OT Loss Rate
16 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+13.1
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-12.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (280 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.1
Total CLS-36

Rank Per Signal

Where Pittsburgh Penguins ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Close Games
1
32
-20.5
3
Shootout Record
1
32
-14.8
9
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
-12.7
13
Injury Burden
1
32
-1.1
29
OT Loss Rate
1
32
+13.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -36, Pittsburgh Penguins are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available