Pittsburgh Penguins Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-34

Luck Index Score

Pittsburgh Penguins are getting roughly what they deserve. 92 points vs 93.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 93.3

266

Goals For

Expected: 93.3

244

Goals Against

1.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · away

3-4

Lost away against Anaheim Ducks

One of those games where nothing went right. Pittsburgh Penguins created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Pittsburgh Penguins. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-10-14 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Anaheim Ducks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW14 · 2025-11-03 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW17 · 2025-11-09 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Home-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against Los Angeles Kings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-26 · vs Ottawa Senators · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Ottawa Senators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW69 · 2026-03-21 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

MW66 · 2026-03-14 · vs Utah Mammoth · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Utah Mammoth 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games

12-23 in one-goal games (34% win rate vs expected 50%)

-21

Shootout Record

3-10 in shootouts (net -7)

-21

OT Loss Rate

16 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

+15

Pythagorean Delta

1 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

-7

Total Luck Index-34

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -34, Pittsburgh Penguins are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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