Philadelphia Flyers CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 4 games played · View NHL standings →
+3
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Flyers are getting roughly what their play deserves. 2 points vs 0.7 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
2
Points
Expected: 0.7
5
Goals For
17
Goals Against
1.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 4 · 2026-10-05 · vs Lightning · away
4-1
Lost away against Lightning
Blown out by Tampa Bay Lightning 1-4. Tough night.
1
Goals
4
Opp. Goals
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm4 · 2026-10-05 · vs Lightning · Away-0.4 pts
Blown out by Tampa Bay Lightning 1-4. Tough night.
Score: 1-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-10-03 · vs Hurricanes · Home+0.2 pts
Lost 2-3 in OT/SO against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
Gm2 · 2026-10-01 · vs Devils · Away+0.2 pts
Lost 2-3 in OT/SO against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+5.6
Close Games
0-2 in one-goal games (0% win rate vs expected 50%)
-4.4
OT Loss Rate
2 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
+1.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.5
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|78 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Flyers are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).