Philadelphia Flyers Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+35

Luck Index Score

Philadelphia Flyers are getting roughly what they deserve. 88 points vs 84.4 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Points

Expected: 84.4

226

Goals For

Expected: 84.4

230

Goals Against

3.6

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 27 · 2025-12-07 · vs Colorado Avalanche · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Colorado Avalanche

One of those games where nothing went right. Philadelphia Flyers generated 2 xG, comfortably more than the 3 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 0.8 points for Philadelphia Flyers. They got 0. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.8

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-12-07 · vs Colorado Avalanche · Home-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 against Colorado Avalanche. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

MW33 · 2025-12-18 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Away-0.8 pts

Lost to Buffalo Sabres 3-5.

Score: 3-5 | xG: 3-5

MW52 · 2026-01-28 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Away-0.8 pts

Lost to Columbus Blue Jackets 3-5.

Score: 3-5 | xG: 3-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW68 · 2026-03-19 · vs Los Angeles Kings · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Los Angeles Kings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW62 · 2026-03-07 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW23 · 2025-11-28 · vs New York Islanders · Away+0.9 pts

Edged New York Islanders 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

4 more points than their goal differential predicts

+19

Shootout Record

9-4 in shootouts (net +5)

+15

OT Loss Rate

12 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points

Close Games

15-17 in one-goal games (47% win rate vs expected 50%)

-4

Total Luck Index+35

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Philadelphia Flyers are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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