Portland Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

0
CLS Score
18th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Trail Blazers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 42 wins vs 42 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Wins
Expected: 42
9469
Points For
9493
Points Against
0
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Hornets · at home
103-101
Lost at home against Hornets

Lost 101-103 to Charlotte Hornets despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

51.8%
Team eFG%
46.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Hornets · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 101-103 to Charlotte Hornets despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 101-103 | eFG%: 51.8-46.6
Gm79 · 2026-04-07 · vs Nuggets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 132-137. Shot 61% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 132-137 | eFG%: 61.2-57.4
Gm10 · 2025-11-11 · vs Magic · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 112-115 to Orlando Magic in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 112-115 | eFG%: 51.7-49.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Bulls · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Chicago Bulls 121-112 despite being outshot 49% to 56% eFG. Chicago Bulls were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-112 | eFG%: 49.5-55.6
Gm70 · 2026-03-18 · vs Pacers · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 127-119. Shot 52% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 127-119 | eFG%: 52.5-57.1
Gm6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Denver Nuggets 109-107 as they shot 52% eFG (-5.9 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-107 | eFG%: 47.8-51.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 59 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.3% vs league)
-5.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.7
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.0% FT vs league average — 15 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 31 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (54.3% vs league)
+0.7
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 5 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.8% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.6
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 6 close games (+0.2 avg margin)
+0.4
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+0.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 4 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.1% vs league)
+0.1
Total CLS0

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Trail Blazers are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available