Portland Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-4
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Trail Blazers are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 0 wins vs 42 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Wins
Expected: 42
0
Points For
0
Points Against
42
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Hornets · at home
103-101
Lost at home against Hornets

Lost 101-103 to Charlotte Hornets despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

51.8%
Team eFG%
46.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-03-11 · vs Hornets · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 101-103 to Charlotte Hornets despite winning the efficiency battle 52% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 101-103 | eFG%: 51.8-46.6
Gm79 · 2026-04-07 · vs Nuggets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 132-137. Shot 61% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 132-137 | eFG%: 61.2-57.4
Gm10 · 2025-11-11 · vs Magic · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 112-115 to Orlando Magic in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 112-115 | eFG%: 51.7-49.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm60 · 2026-02-27 · vs Bulls · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Chicago Bulls 121-112 despite being outshot 49% to 56% eFG. Chicago Bulls were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 121-112 | eFG%: 49.5-55.6
Gm70 · 2026-03-18 · vs Pacers · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Indiana Pacers 127-119. Shot 52% eFG vs their 57%.
Score: 127-119 | eFG%: 52.5-57.1
Gm6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Denver Nuggets 109-107 as they shot 52% eFG (-5.9 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-107 | eFG%: 47.8-51.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
42 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-3.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 59 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.3% vs league)
-1.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.0% FT vs league average — 15 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-0.4
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 5 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.8% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 31 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (54.3% vs league)
+0.2
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Off 2P Luck
Made 4 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.1% vs league)
0
Total CLS-4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Trail Blazers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available