Real Betis

Real Betis CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+20
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Real Betis have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+14.3 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 8.73
9
Goals Scored
xG: 11.01
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 12.97
7.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Levante · away
2-5
Lost away against Levante

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Betis generated 1.92 xG, comfortably more than the 2.76 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Real Betis. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
24'Dela scores for Levante (assist: J. A. Olasagasti)
34'M. Bartra scores for Real Betis
45'E. Bardeli scores for Levante
45'R. Riquelme scores for Real Betis (assist: M. Roca)
56'R. Brugue scores for Levante (assist: E. Bardeli)
70'R. Brugue scores for Levante
90'J. A. Olasagasti scores for Levante (assist: K. Etta Eyong)
1.92
xG Created
2.76
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Levante · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 2-5 away. xG: 1.9-2.8.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 1.92-2.76
MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Deportivo La Coruna · Away+0.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.8-2.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.8-2.09
MW6 · 2026-09-17 · vs Getafe · Home+0.5 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.9-0.3.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.89-0.29

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-04 · vs Real Madrid · Home+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.93-3.46
MW2 · 2026-08-25 · vs Valencia · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.71-1.12
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Real Sociedad · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.24-1.36

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+14.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 13.0 xGA opponents generated
+7.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 11.0 xG - wasting chances
-4.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (38 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.6
Total CLS+20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Betis are riding their luck at +20. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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