Real Betis

Real Betis Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-1

Luck Index Score

Real Betis are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 46.07 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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44

Points

Expected: 46.07

44

Goals Scored

xG: 43.72

37

Goals Conceded

xGA: 34.04

2.1

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-14 · vs Levante · away

2-2

Drew away against Levante

A draw that felt like a loss. Real Betis created 2.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Levante generated just 0.73 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Real Betis. They got 1. That's 1.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

28'Kiko Femenia scores for Getafe

45'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: A. Abqar)

2.12

xG Created

0.73

Opp. xG

-1.3

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Getafe · Away-2.0 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.11-0.37

MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.07-0.6

MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Alaves · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.38-1.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Espanyol · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.4-2.28

MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away+1.7 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.7-0.67

MW22 · 2026-02-01 · vs Valencia · Home+1.6 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.87-1.9

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+13

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 more goals than the 34.0 xGA opponents generated

-9

xPTS Gap

2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-6

Injury Burden

High injury burden (139 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-6

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+4

Finishing Luck

Scored 0 more goals than their 43.7 xG - clinical finishing

+3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

0

Total Luck Index-1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Sevilla

Villarreal

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: declining|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Real Betis are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-04

H

Espanyol

04-12

A

Osasuna

04-22

A

Girona

04-25

H

Real Madrid

05-03

H

Oviedo

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