Real Betis

Real Betis CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+3
CLS Score

Real Betis are getting roughly what they deserve. 46 points vs 48.95 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

46
Points
Expected: 48.95
45
Goals Scored
xG: 45.51
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 35.69
2.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Getafe · away
0-2
Lost away against Getafe

One of those games where nothing went right. Getafe created almost nothing - just 0.37 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Real Betis. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'Kiko Femenia scores for Getafe
45'M. Satriano scores for Getafe (assist: A. Abqar)
1.11
xG Created
0.37
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Getafe · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.11-0.37
MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.07-0.6
MW21 · 2026-01-25 · vs Alaves · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.38-1.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Espanyol · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.4-2.28
MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.7-0.67
MW22 · 2026-02-01 · vs Valencia · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.87-1.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.3
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 35.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (144 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.5 more goals than their 45.5 xG - clinical finishing
+0.2
Total CLS+3

Rank Per Signal

Where Real Betis ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

6
Defensive Luck
1
20
-3.2
7
xPTS Gap
1
20
-4.5
8
Injury Burden
1
20
-2.6
10
Finishing Luck
1
20
+0.2
11
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.3
16
Discipline
1
20
+2.1
19
Schedule Strength
1
20
+11.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Real Betis are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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