Reds Articles

The regular season is over, and the variance ledger is wide open.

The Tigers finished 12.6 points below expected. The Rays overshot by nearly eight. The postseason won't care.

The regular season is over, but the underlying numbers tell a different story than the final standings.

MLB's biggest luck divergences heading into the final week, and what the underlying numbers actually say.

ERA minus xERA reveals which staffs are absorbing bad luck and which are riding good fortune into late September.

MLB's biggest luck gaps heading into the final stretch, and what the underlying numbers actually show.

Statcast's wOBA-minus-xwOBA signal reveals which MLB lineups are running into walls, literally, and which ones keep finding grass.

Detroit's luck index is the worst in baseball. Tampa Bay's is the best. The math has opinions.

MLB's luck index finds six teams whose records are lying to the standings.

MLB's biggest luck divergences heading into September, and what the numbers say is coming.

Detroit's luck index sits at -64, the most extreme gap in baseball right now.

Detroit's Luck Index of -58 leads MLB's most extreme correction candidates heading into late August.

Detroit's luck index of -57 leads a week of extreme variance signals across MLB.

MLB's biggest luck gaps at the deadline paint a different picture than the standings.