Bottom line: Detroit's -58 Luck Index and 12.6-win expected-points gap made them the most statistically snakebitten team in baseball this season.
Through October 11, 2026, the final MLB regular-season standings have hardened into the official record. But the underlying numbers, per Baseball Savant's expected metrics and our proprietary luckscore model, tell a different story. Several clubs finished far from where their run differentials, expected batting averages, and barrel rates said they should have landed. For bettors parsing the postseason and already eyeing 2027 futures, these gaps are worth understanding. Variance like this typically regresses. The question is always when.
Due a Correction
The three teams sitting furthest below their expected-points totals all share a common thread: they were better than their records.
| Team | Luck Index | xPoints Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers | -58 | -12.60 |
| Giants | -56 | -6.60 |
| Mets | -50 | -3.70 |
Detroit Tigers. A Luck Index of -58 is staggering. The Tigers finished a full 12.6 points below where their underlying performance projected them, the largest gap in our mlb luck rankings this season. Their Statcast profile showed a club that consistently squared up pitches and limited hard contact, yet their record never reflected it. One-run losses and bullpen implosions in high-leverage spots drove much of the damage. The market priced Detroit as sellers all summer, but the process was considerably better than the product.
San Francisco Giants. At -56, the Giants were almost as unlucky as Detroit by Luck Index, though their xPoints gap of -6.6 was more modest. San Francisco's pitching staff posted quality peripherals that simply didn't translate to wins. Sequencing variance, the cruel arithmetic of when hits fall rather than how many, was the culprit. Bookmakers' win totals had the Giants pegged higher than where they landed, and the expected-points model agreed.
New York Mets. A -3.7 xPoints gap is the smallest of this group but still meaningful over 162 games. The Mets' Luck Index of -50 suggests they left real wins on the table, mostly through an underperforming offense that ranked higher in expected slugging than actual slugging, per Statcast data. For a team that made noise at the deadline, the final record undersold the roster.
Living on Borrowed Luck
On the other side of the ledger, three teams rode variance to better records than their fundamentals supported.
| Team | Luck Index | xPoints Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Rays | +86 | +7.80 |
| D-backs | +49 | +4.10 |
| Reds | +42 | +9.80 |
Tampa Bay Rays. A Luck Index of +86 is the highest figure in our model this season, full stop. The Rays finished 7.8 points above their expected total, thriving in close games at a rate that historically does not sustain. Their bullpen posted a strand rate well above league average, a metric that almost always normalizes. The lines implied a contender. The data implies a team that caught every break.
Arizona Diamondbacks. At +49 and a 4.1-point xPoints surplus, the D-backs benefited from a BABIP-fueled offense that outpaced its expected batting average by a wide margin. Arizona's win total was real enough to earn a playoff spot, but the foundation underneath it was thinner than October demands.
Cincinnati Reds. The Reds' 9.8-point xPoints gap is actually the largest overperformance in the group, even though their Luck Index of +42 sits below Tampa Bay's. Cincinnati won a disproportionate number of games decided by two runs or fewer, a classic marker of unsustainable variance.
That's a lot of borrowed luck in one division.
The Regression Window
In baseball, gaps of this size tend to close across a full subsequent season rather than within a short playoff series. A seven-game set is too small a sample for regression to act reliably. But for futures markets and 2027 win-total pricing, these divergences matter. Sportsbooks tend to anchor on final records. The expected-points model does not. That disconnect is where information lives.