Rockies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 52 games played · View MLB standings →
-3
CLS Score
13th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Rockies are getting what their run differential deserves. 19 wins vs 19.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
19
Wins
Expected: 19.8
210
Runs Scored
264
Runs Allowed
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · away
0-0
Lost away against Mets
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm38 · 2026-05-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Marlins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Marlins (6-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm50 · 2026-05-18 · vs Rangers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rangers. 2 Rangers errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6
Gm41 · 2026-05-08 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Phillies 9-7 (13-9 H). Dominated with the bat (13 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 9-7
Gm27 · 2026-04-24 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Mets (10-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.315 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+9.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.17 vs xERA 5.03 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.2
One-Run Game Record
5-7 in one-run games (42% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3.7
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Total CLS-3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|110 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rockies are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).