Rockies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →
-12
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Rockies are getting what their run differential deserves. 50 wins vs 53.2 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
50
Wins
Expected: 53.2
615
Runs Scored
746
Runs Allowed
3.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · away
0-0
Lost away against Mets
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm38 · 2026-05-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Marlins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Marlins (6-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm119 · 2026-08-08 · vs Cardinals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Cardinals 8-6 (11-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm105 · 2026-07-21 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Nationals (12-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 8-7
Gm98 · 2026-07-10 · vs Giants · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Giants. Giants left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.324 vs xwOBA 0.309 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+22.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.78 vs xERA 5.34 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-18.6
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-11.8
One-Run Game Record
16-18 in one-run games (47% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rockies are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 22th in the league - a favorable stretch.