Rockies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →
-7
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Rockies are getting what their run differential deserves. 36 wins vs 38.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
36
Wins
Expected: 38.1
436
Runs Scored
516
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · away
0-0
Lost away against Mets
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm38 · 2026-05-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Marlins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Marlins (6-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm83 · 2026-06-24 · vs Red Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Red Sox 8-6. 2 Red Sox errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 8-6
Gm78 · 2026-06-19 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Pirates (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm63 · 2026-06-01 · vs Angels · Away+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 against Angels (10-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 9-8
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.331 vs xwOBA 0.312 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+21
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.65 vs xERA 5.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-14.3
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-8.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.2
One-Run Game Record
11-12 in one-run games (48% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.6
Total CLS-7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|70 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Rockies are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).