Rockies

Rockies CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 164 games played · View MLB standings →

-27
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Rockies deserve more. 58 wins vs 64.4 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (+24.5 CLS impact). wOBA 0.324 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

58
Wins
Expected: 64.4
752
Runs Scored
944
Runs Allowed
6.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · away
0-0
Lost away against Mets

Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm38 · 2026-05-05 · vs Mets · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Marlins · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Marlins (6-10 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm142 · 2026-09-02 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 11 innings against Orioles. Orioles left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm119 · 2026-08-08 · vs Cardinals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Cardinals 8-6 (11-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm105 · 2026-07-21 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Nationals (12-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.324 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+24.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.60 vs xERA 5.10 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-22.8
Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-20
One-Run Game Record
17-25 in one-run games (40% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-13.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.8
Total CLS-27

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Rockies are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available