Tampa Bay Lightning CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 5 games played · View NHL standings →
+7
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Lightning are getting roughly what their play deserves. 8 points vs 7 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
8
Points
Expected: 7
16
Goals For
12
Goals Against
1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Rangers · away
5-1
Lost away against Rangers
Blown out by New York Rangers 1-5. Tough night.
1
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.3
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Rangers · Away-0.3 pts
Blown out by New York Rangers 1-5. Tough night.
Score: 1-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm4 · 2026-10-08 · vs Wild · Home+0.8 pts
Edged Minnesota Wild 3-2. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-2
Gm5 · 2026-10-10 · vs Islanders · Away+0.7 pts
Beat New York Islanders 5-3.
Score: 5-3
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Capitals · Home+0.5 pts
Beat Washington Capitals 3-1.
Score: 3-1
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+4.5
Close Games
1-0 in one-goal games (100% win rate vs expected 50%)
+2.5
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (4 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.6
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|77 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lightning are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).