Tampa Bay Lightning Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-39

Luck Index Score

Tampa Bay Lightning can't catch a break. 100 points when they deserve 106.8? That's 6.8 points stolen by the football gods. 28 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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100

Points

Expected: 106.8

274

Goals For

Expected: 106.8

210

Goals Against

6.8

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · at home

4-5

Lost at home against Ottawa Senators

One of those games where nothing went right. Tampa Bay Lightning created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Tampa Bay Lightning. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

xG Created

Opp. xG

-0.9

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

MW27 · 2025-12-04 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Home-0.9 pts

Lost 3-4 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

MW57 · 2026-02-26 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW54 · 2026-02-03 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

MW53 · 2026-02-01 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts

Edged Boston Bruins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5

MW39 · 2025-12-31 · vs Anaheim Ducks · Away+0.9 pts

Edged Anaheim Ducks 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

-36

Shootout Record

4-2 in shootouts (net +2)

Close Games

13-15 in one-goal games (46% win rate vs expected 50%)

-5

OT Loss Rate

6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT

-4

Total Luck Index-39

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -39, Tampa Bay Lightning are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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