Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · 82 games played · View NHL standings →

-34
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Lightning can't catch a break. 106 points vs 113 expected. Shootouts, one-goal games, the small margins haven't fallen their way. Regression should help. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-36.7 CLS impact). 7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

106
Points
Expected: 113
290
Goals For
231
Goals Against
7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Senators · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Senators

Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Senators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
Gm27 · 2025-12-04 · vs Penguins · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
Gm57 · 2026-02-26 · vs Hurricanes · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm81 · 2026-04-13 · vs Red Wings · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm54 · 2026-02-03 · vs Sabres · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm53 · 2026-02-01 · vs Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-36.7
Shootout Record
4-2 in shootouts (net +2)
+6.7
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-6.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+4.3
Close Games
15-16 in one-goal games (48% win rate vs expected 50%)
-2
Total CLS-34

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -34, Lightning are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available