Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL regular season · View NHL standings →

-42
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 32 in the NHL

Lightning have been robbed by hockey's coin flips. 106 points from 113 expected — the kind of gap that shows up when shootouts, OT losses, and one-goal games have all gone the wrong way. The underlying performance says they're better than the standings show. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-47.9 CLS impact). 7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

106
Points
Expected: 113
290
Goals For
231
Goals Against
7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

✦ Luckiest Matches

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-47.9
Shootout Record
4-2 in shootouts (net +2)
+8.8
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-8.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+5.3
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
0
Total CLS-42

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|81 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lightning are deeply cursed at -42. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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