Tampa Bay Lightning CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 NHL regular season · 3 games played · View NHL standings →
+1
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 32 in the NHL
Lightning are getting roughly what their play deserves. 4 points vs 3.7 expected — neutral on the luck scale.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
4
Points
Expected: 3.7
8
Goals For
7
Goals Against
0.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Rangers · away
5-1
Lost away against Rangers
Blown out by New York Rangers 1-5. Tough night.
1
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.3
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm1 · 2026-10-01 · vs Rangers · Away-0.3 pts
Blown out by New York Rangers 1-5. Tough night.
Score: 1-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-10-03 · vs Capitals · Home+0.5 pts
Beat Washington Capitals 3-1.
Score: 3-1
Gm3 · 2026-10-05 · vs Flyers · Home+0.4 pts
Dominated Philadelphia Flyers 4-1. A convincing win that the scoreline reflects.
Score: 4-1
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2
OT Loss Rate
No OT losses - losing in regulation when they lose
-1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.3
Close Games
Not enough one-goal games to measure
+0.1
Shootout Record
0-0 in shootouts (net 0)
0
Total CLS+1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|79 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lightning are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 10th in the league - a tough run.