Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-41
CLS Score

Tampa Bay Lightning have been robbed by hockey's coin flips. 106 points from 113 expected — the kind of gap that shows up when shootouts, OT losses, and one-goal games have all gone the wrong way. The underlying performance says they're better than the standings show.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

106
Points
Expected: 113
290
Goals For
231
Goals Against
7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Ottawa Senators

Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.

4
Goals
5
Opp. Goals
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5
MW27 · 2025-12-04 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4
MW57 · 2026-02-26 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Carolina Hurricanes. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW81 · 2026-04-13 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW54 · 2026-02-03 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3
MW53 · 2026-02-01 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-35.3
Shootout Record
4-2 in shootouts (net +2)
+6.5
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-6.1
Close Games
15-17 in one-goal games (47% win rate vs expected 50%)
-3.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (293 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Total CLS-41

Rank Per Signal

Where Tampa Bay Lightning ranks among NHL teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Pythagorean Delta
1
32
-35.3
8
OT Loss Rate
1
32
-6.1
12
Injury Burden
1
32
-2.3
14
Close Games
1
32
-3.8
22
Shootout Record
1
32
+6.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Tampa Bay Lightning are deeply cursed at -41. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available