Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+7
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Raptors are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 46 wins vs 44.6 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 44.6
9400
Points For
9168
Points Against
1.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Kings · at home
123-115
Lost at home against Kings

Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

60.4%
Team eFG%
52.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 115-123 | eFG%: 60.4-52.2
Gm52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 126-128 to Minnesota Timberwolves in a 2-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 126-128 | eFG%: 61.2-58.8
Gm20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Hornets · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 111-118 to Charlotte Hornets shooting just 49% eFG (-5.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 111-118 | eFG%: 49-49.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-11-27 · vs Pacers · Home+0.9 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 97-95 despite being outshot 42% to 52% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 97-95 | eFG%: 41.7-51.9
Gm40 · 2026-01-11 · vs 76ers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Philadelphia 76ers 116-115 despite being outshot 42% to 50% eFG. Philadelphia 76ers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-115 | eFG%: 42.2-50
Gm80 · 2026-04-09 · vs Heat · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 128-114 despite being outshot 59% to 65% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-114 | eFG%: 58.7-64.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 30 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+4.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+3.9
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.3% FT vs league average — 20 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+2.3
Off 3P Luck
Made 15 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.4% vs league)
-1.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 23 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.5% vs league)
+1
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 4 close games (-0.5 avg margin)
-0.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 4 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.1% vs league)
-0.1
Total CLS+7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Raptors are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available