Toronto Raptors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+21

CLS Score

Toronto Raptors have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Wins

Expected: 43.9

9400

Points For

9168

Points Against

2.1

Wins Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Sacramento Kings · at home

115-123

Lost at home against Sacramento Kings

Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

60.4%

Team eFG%

52.2%

Opp. eFG%

-0.8

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home-0.8 pts

Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

Score: 115-123 | eFG%: 60.4-52.2

MW52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts

Lost 126-128 to Minnesota Timberwolves in a 2-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

Score: 126-128 | eFG%: 61.2-58.8

MW20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Charlotte Hornets · Away-0.5 pts

Lost 111-118 to Charlotte Hornets shooting just 49% eFG (-5.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.

Score: 111-118 | eFG%: 49-49.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2025-11-27 · vs Indiana Pacers · Home+0.9 pts

Stole it from Indiana Pacers 97-95 despite being outshot 42% to 52% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.

Score: 97-95 | eFG%: 41.7-51.9

MW40 · 2026-01-11 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home+0.8 pts

Stole it from Philadelphia 76ers 116-115 despite being outshot 42% to 50% eFG. Philadelphia 76ers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.

Score: 116-115 | eFG%: 42.2-50

MW80 · 2026-04-09 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.7 pts

Stole it from Miami Heat 128-114 despite being outshot 59% to 65% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.

Score: 128-114 | eFG%: 58.7-64.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

+15.5

Injury Burden

High injury burden (111 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

+5.5

Total CLS+21

Rank Per Signal

Where Toronto Raptors ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Pythagorean Delta

+15.5

Injury Burden

+5.5

Tank Watch

Competing (8/100)

Toronto Raptors have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half

25-17

0.6% win rate

Second Half

21-21

0.5% win rate

Win rate decline

0pp

Close game collapse

1pp

Point differential decline

-1.4pts/game

Late losing streaks

0 losing streaks

Roster turnover (2H)

11%

View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Toronto Raptors are riding their luck at +21. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available