Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+17
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Raptors have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Injury Burden (+6.2 CLS impact). High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 44.6
9400
Points For
9168
Points Against
1.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Kings · at home
123-115
Lost at home against Kings

Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

60.4%
Team eFG%
52.2%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm76 · 2026-04-02 · vs Kings · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 115-123 to Sacramento Kings despite winning the efficiency battle 60% to 52% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 115-123 | eFG%: 60.4-52.2
Gm52 · 2026-02-05 · vs Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts
Lost 126-128 to Minnesota Timberwolves in a 2-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 126-128 | eFG%: 61.2-58.8
Gm20 · 2025-11-29 · vs Hornets · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 111-118 to Charlotte Hornets shooting just 49% eFG (-5.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 111-118 | eFG%: 49-49.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-11-27 · vs Pacers · Home+0.9 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 97-95 despite being outshot 42% to 52% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 97-95 | eFG%: 41.7-51.9
Gm40 · 2026-01-11 · vs 76ers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Philadelphia 76ers 116-115 despite being outshot 42% to 50% eFG. Philadelphia 76ers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-115 | eFG%: 42.2-50
Gm80 · 2026-04-09 · vs Heat · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Miami Heat 128-114 despite being outshot 59% to 65% eFG. Miami Heat were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 128-114 | eFG%: 58.7-64.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6.2
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 30 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (34.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+5.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+4.7
Close Game Record
67% win rate in 3 close games (+0.3 avg margin)
+4.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.3% FT vs league average — 20 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.9
Off 3P Luck
Made 15 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.4% vs league)
-2.1
Off 2P Luck
Made 23 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.5% vs league)
+1.2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 4 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.1% vs league)
-0.2
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Raptors are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available