Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-12
Luck Index Score

Toronto Raptors are getting roughly what they deserve. 43 points vs 44.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

43
Wins
Expected: 44.2
8819
Points For
Expected: 44.2
8631
Points Against
1.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2025-12-05 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · at home
120-123
Lost at home against Los Angeles Lakers

One of those games where nothing went right. Toronto Raptors created 120 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 120 goals on an average day. They scored 120. The model valued this match at 0.4 points for Toronto Raptors. They got 0. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

120
xG Created
123
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2025-12-05 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 120-123 to Los Angeles Lakers. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 120-123 | xG: 120-123
MW35 · 2026-01-01 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 103-106 to Denver Nuggets. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 103-106 | xG: 103-106
MW43 · 2026-01-17 · vs LA Clippers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to LA Clippers 117-121.
Score: 117-121 | xG: 117-121

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW40 · 2026-01-11 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Philadelphia 76ers 116-115. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 116-115 | xG: 116-115
MW38 · 2026-01-08 · vs Charlotte Hornets · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Charlotte Hornets 97-96. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 97-96 | xG: 97-96
MW34 · 2025-12-30 · vs Orlando Magic · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Orlando Magic 107-106. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 107-106 | xG: 107-106

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-5
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-3
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.2% below expected from shot locations (54.4% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
-2
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Total Luck Index-12

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
52W-25L
-31Unlucky
#4 in league
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
43W-34L
+33Lucky
#13 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Toronto Raptors are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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