Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-50
CLS Score

Washington Wizards have been systematically robbed. 17 wins from 23.1 expected — a 6.1-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 65 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

17
Wins
Expected: 23.1
9258
Points For
10240
Points Against
6.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Detroit Pistons · away
135-137
Lost away against Detroit Pistons

Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

60.5%
Team eFG%
46.9%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 135-137 | eFG%: 60.5-46.9
MW16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 120-121 to Chicago Bulls despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 120-121 | eFG%: 54.2-48
MW23 · 2025-12-13 · vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 126-130 to Cleveland Cavaliers despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 126-130 | eFG%: 58.1-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW19 · 2025-12-02 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 129-126 despite being outshot 58% to 67% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 129-126 | eFG%: 58.3-67.3
MW46 · 2026-01-30 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Milwaukee Bucks 109-99 as they shot 47% eFG (-9.6 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-99 | eFG%: 43.8-46.9
MW32 · 2026-01-01 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Away+0.6 pts
Edged Milwaukee Bucks 114-113 in a 1-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 114-113 | eFG%: 53.7-55.1

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-16.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (27 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.4
Close Game Record
33% win rate in 6 close games (-1.8 avg margin)
-7.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 27 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-4.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.7% FT vs league average — 32 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-4
Off 2P Luck
Made 76 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-3.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 88 more 2s than league-avg would predict (56.9% vs league)
-3
Off 3P Luck
Made 3 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
-0.4
Total CLS-50

Rank Per Signal

Where Washington Wizards ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-16.6
3
Opp FT Luck
1
30
-4
4
Injury Burden
1
30
-10.4
5
Off 2P Luck
1
30
-3.5
6
Close Game Record
1
30
-7.5
7
Def 3P Luck
1
30
-4.6
8
Def 2P Luck
1
30
-3
15
Off 3P Luck
1
30
-0.4

Tank Watch

On the Fence (21/100)

Washington Wizards are on the fence. Some decline but nothing conclusive.

First Half
10-31
0.2% win rate
Second Half
7-34
0.2% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
1.6pts/game
Late losing streaks
2 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
21%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Washington Wizards are deeply cursed at -50. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available