Washington Wizards Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+17

Luck Index Score

Washington Wizards are getting roughly what they deserve. 17 points vs 15.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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Wins

Expected: 15.5

8567

Points For

Expected: 15.5

9449

Points Against

1.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · away

120-121

Lost away against Chicago Bulls

One of those games where nothing went right. Washington Wizards created 120 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 120 goals on an average day. They scored 120. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Washington Wizards. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

120

xG Created

121

Opp. xG

-0.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away-0.5 pts

Lost 120-121 to Chicago Bulls. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 120-121 | xG: 120-121

MW4 · 2025-10-28 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home-0.4 pts

Lost to Philadelphia 76ers 134-139.

Score: 134-139 | xG: 134-139

MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.4 pts

Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.

Score: 135-137 | xG: 135-137

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-01-01 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Away+0.5 pts

Edged Milwaukee Bucks 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.

Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113

MW48 · 2026-02-01 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home+0.4 pts

Beat Sacramento Kings 116-112.

Score: 116-112 | xG: 116-112

MW45 · 2026-01-28 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Home+0.4 pts

Beat Portland Trail Blazers 115-111.

Score: 115-111 | xG: 115-111

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta

2 more wins than their point differential predicts

Diff Consistency

Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots

Shot Quality Luck

Shooting 0.9% below expected from shot locations (53.6% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)

-7

Win% Gap

Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports

Total Luck Index+17

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Washington Wizards are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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