Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+3
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Wizards are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 2 wins vs 0.6 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

2
Wins
Expected: 0.6
225
Points For
217
Points Against
1.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Pistons · away
137-135
Lost away against Pistons

Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

60.5%
Team eFG%
46.9%
Opp. eFG%
-0.9
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Pistons · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 135-137 to Detroit Pistons despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 47% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 135-137 | eFG%: 60.5-46.9
Gm16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Bulls · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 120-121 to Chicago Bulls despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 120-121 | eFG%: 54.2-48
Gm23 · 2025-12-13 · vs Cavaliers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 126-130 to Cleveland Cavaliers despite winning the efficiency battle 58% to 50% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 126-130 | eFG%: 58.1-50

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm19 · 2025-12-02 · vs Bucks · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 129-126 despite being outshot 58% to 67% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 129-126 | eFG%: 58.3-67.3
Gm46 · 2026-01-30 · vs Bucks · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Milwaukee Bucks 109-99 as they shot 47% eFG (-9.6 below their season average). Defensive luck, opponent couldn't find their shot.
Score: 109-99 | eFG%: 43.8-46.9
Gm32 · 2026-01-01 · vs Bucks · Away+0.6 pts
Edged Milwaukee Bucks 114-113 in a 1-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 114-113 | eFG%: 53.7-55.1

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+7
Close Game Record
100% win rate in 1 close games (+2.0 avg margin)
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-1.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 27 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.8% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.7% FT vs league average — 31 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-1.2
Off 2P Luck
Made 76 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.3% vs league)
-1.1
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 87 more 2s than league-avg would predict (56.9% vs league)
-0.9
Off 3P Luck
Made 3 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.9% vs league)
-0.1
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Wizards are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available