Tottenham

Tottenham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-27
CLS Score

Tottenham can't catch a break. 31 points when the data says they deserve closer to 37.36? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

31
Points
Expected: 37.36
42
Goals Scored
xG: 34.72
53
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.31
6.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Aston Villa · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Aston Villa

One of those games where nothing went right. Aston Villa created almost nothing - just 0.32 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Tottenham. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'R. Bentancur scores for Tottenham (assist: J. Palhinha)
37'M. Rogers scores for Aston Villa
77'E. Buendia scores for Aston Villa (assist: L. Digne)
0.75
xG Created
0.32
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.75-0.32
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Fulham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.86-0.45
MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Liverpool · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.07-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Leeds · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.53-1.68
MW18 · 2025-12-28 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.88-1.47
MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Manchester City · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (278 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-18.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 34.7 xG - clinical finishing
+12.3
xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 49.3 xGA opponents generated
-5.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.4
Total CLS-27

Rank Per Signal

Where Tottenham ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Discipline
1
20
-4.4
1
Injury Burden
1
20
-18.8
2
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-6.1
4
xPTS Gap
1
20
-9.7
5
Defensive Luck
1
20
-5.2
15
Schedule Strength
1
20
+4.9
20
Finishing Luck
1
20
+12.3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, Tottenham are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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