Tottenham

Tottenham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-29
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Tottenham can't catch a break. 38 points when the data says they deserve closer to 44.57? 17 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-20.4 CLS impact). High injury burden (332 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 44.57
47
Goals Scored
xG: 39.84
57
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.13
6.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-19 · vs Chelsea · away
1-2
Lost away against Chelsea

A defeat that defied the run of play. Tottenham generated 1.72 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Chelsea generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Tottenham. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'E. Fernandez scores for Chelsea (assist: P. Neto)
67'Andrey Santos scores for Chelsea (assist: E. Fernandez)
74'Richarlison scores for Tottenham (assist: P. M. Sarr)
1.72
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-19 · vs Chelsea · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.72-0.63
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.75-0.32
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Fulham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.86-0.45

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Leeds · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.53-1.68
MW18 · 2025-12-28 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.88-1.47
MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Manchester City · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (332 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-20.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 39.8 xG - clinical finishing
+10.7
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 52.1 xGA opponents generated
-6.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.6
Total CLS-29

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -29, Tottenham are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Everton
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
17
of 20
No change from current 17
Projected Points
39
from 38 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
1.20
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook