Tottenham

Tottenham Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-23
Luck Index Score

Tottenham can't catch a break. 30 points when they deserve 35.07? That's 5.07 points stolen by the football gods. 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

30
Points
Expected: 35.07
40
Goals Scored
xG: 32.73
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.63
5.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Aston Villa · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Aston Villa

One of those games where nothing went right. Aston Villa created almost nothing - just 0.32 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Tottenham. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
5'R. Bentancur scores for Tottenham (assist: J. Palhinha)
37'M. Rogers scores for Aston Villa
77'E. Buendia scores for Aston Villa (assist: L. Digne)
0.75
xG Created
0.32
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.75-0.32
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Fulham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.86-0.45
MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Liverpool · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.07-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Leeds · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.53-1.68
MW18 · 2025-12-28 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.88-1.47
MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Manchester City · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.55

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (265 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-22
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 more goals than their 32.7 xG - clinical finishing
+14
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 46.6 xGA opponents generated
-5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-5
Total Luck Index-24

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Arsenal
Arsenal
21W-7D-3L
+40Lucky
#1 in league
Chelsea
Chelsea
13W-9D-9L
-29Unlucky
#6 in league
West Ham
West Ham
7W-8D-16L
-23Unlucky
#18 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Tottenham are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
04-12
A
Sunderland
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04-18
H
Brighton
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04-25
A
Wolves
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05-02
A
Aston Villa
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05-11
H
Leeds
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