Tottenham

Tottenham CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-12
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Tottenham are getting roughly what they deserve. 2 points vs 4.82 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

2
Points
Expected: 4.82
2
Goals Scored
xG: 1.69
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.59
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Newcastle · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Newcastle

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Tottenham. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
62'A. Elanga scores for Newcastle (assist: A. Dedic)
72'Y. Wissa scores for Newcastle (assist: N. Woltemade)
1.12
xG Created
0.72
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Newcastle · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.12-0.72
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Brentford · Away-0.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.6-3.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.57-3.87

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Everton · Home+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Brentford · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.6-3.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.57-3.87

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.5
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 1.7 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-4.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (31 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 4.6 xGA opponents generated
+0.2
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Tottenham are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
10-10
A
Manchester United
Bet
10-19
H
Coventry
Bet
10-24
A
Chelsea
Bet
10-31
H
Crystal Palace
Bet
11-07
A
Leeds
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
20
of 20
↓ 1 from current 19
Projected Points
26
from 2 now (+24 remaining)
Pace
0.96
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook